DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Majority of Fertilizer Prices Move Lower, Except for MAP, DAP

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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At $332 per ton, the average retail price of potash is $6 lower than at the same time month. It's $34 per ton less expensive than at the same time last year, a 14% decline. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- A majority of retail fertilizer prices are lower the third week of October 2020 compared to a month earlier, with only the two phosphate prices bucking the trend, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

This breaks a six-week streak where five of the eight major fertilizers tracked by DTN have been lower. This week, the price of six fertilizers declined.

While there were six fertilizers lower in price compared to last month, none were down a significant amount, which DTN designates as 5% or more. Potash had an average price $332 per ton, down $6; urea $359/ton, down $3; 10-34-0 $456/ton, down $1; anhydrous $424/ton, down $1; UAN28 $209/ton, down $6; and UAN32 $249/ton, down $4.

Of the two remaining fertilizers that had higher prices, MAP was up a significant amount. Its average retail price increased $23/ton, or 5%, from last month to $476/ton.

The price of DAP was also higher, up $12/ton, at $446/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.26/lb.N, UAN28 $0.37/lb.N and UAN32 $0.39/lb.N.

Occasionally, I like to look back on the nearly 12 years of DTN retail fertilizer price data to observe price trends. As I expected, prices for some fertilizers are near all-time lows.

I thought this might be the case with UAN28's average price of $209/ton. Looking back, this is the lowest price since the fourth week of October 2017, when the average price was $208/ton.

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The lowest price for UAN28 in the entire data set was from the second week of October 2017 when the price fell to $205/ton. If current retail prices continue to decline, we could set a new all-time low in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

If UAN28 is near an all-time DTN low price, then surely UAN32 must be this low as well, doesn't it? The answer to that question is yes.

UAN32 for last week was at $249/ton. The last time its price was this low was the first week of October 2017, when it was $243/ton, which is also the all-time low price in our data set for UAN32.

Then I wondered where we are historically on the price of fertilizers that could actually be applied this fall -- anhydrous, DAP and MAP. There is both good and bad news with these fertilizers.

First the good news. Anhydrous is at the lowest price, $424/ton last week, since the first week of December 2017. The all-time low price in the DTN data set for anhydrous was $393/ton set the fourth week of October 2017.

And now the bad news. DAP and MAP prices are nowhere near all-time lows like some of the other fertilizers.

DAP's average price of $446/ton last week was the highest price since the last week of November 2019 when the price was $456/ton. MAP's average price of $476/ton last week was the highest price since the second week of September 2019 when the price was at $482/ton.

The all-time-high DAP and MAP prices were set back in the not-so-good old days of 2008. The first week of November 2008 saw DAP at $985/ton and MAP $1,079/ton. That week was also the all-time high for anhydrous at $1,043/ton in DTN's data set.

So, while DAP and MAP prices are not at all-time DTN low prices, they are also a long way from the all-time highs.

Like last week, all but one of the fertilizers are lower in price from a year earlier. Only one fertilizer, MAP, is higher at 1% higher than last year.

The remaining seven fertilizers are lower compared to last year. 10-34-0 is 3% lower, DAP is 4% less expensive, urea is 11% lower, both potash and UAN32 are 14% less expensive, anhydrous is 16% lower and UAN28 is 17% lower than last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Oct 21-25, 2019 465 473 383 404
Nov 18-22 2019 456 466 381 387
Dec 16-20 2019 444 460 378 377
Jan 13-17 2020 433 444 375 357
Feb 10-14 2020 413 435 373 361
Mar 9-13 2020 407 432 370 377
Apr 6-10 2020 409 434 370 382
May 4-8 2020 413 433 370 388
Jun 1-5 2020 407 431 364 373
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020 406 427 361 357
Jul 27-31 2020 410 429 358 355
Aug 24-28 2020 430 435 352 355
Sep 21-25 2020 434 453 338 361
Oct 19-23 2020 446 476 332 359
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Oct 21-25, 2019 471 507 251 291
Nov 18-22 2019 472 496 245 284
Dec 16-20 2019 469 487 239 276
Jan 13-17 2020 470 487 237 275
Feb 10-14 2020 464 490 235 277
Mar 9-13 2020 466 490 235 278
Apr 6-10 2020 468 492 235 278
May 4-8 2020 468 492 237 280
Jun 1-5 2020 468 475 236 276
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020 468 461 233 272
Jul 27-31 2020 465 454 223 262
Aug 24-28 2020 464 442 219 258
Sep 21-25 2020 457 425 215 253
Oct 19-23 2020 456 424 209 249

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter at @RussQuinnDTN

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Russ Quinn