DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge extending from Alaska across northern Canada into Greenland. This is warm pattern for western Canada, mild/warm central, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough over the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A trough over southwest Canada and the northwest U.S. A ridge over the southwest U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Subtropical high pressure is located along and off the northwest coast of Mexico and in the Bahamas.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada and a trough over north-central and northeast Canada extending across Greenland. This will be a warm/hot pattern for western and central Canada, mild/warm in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S., Rockies and plains extending into western portions of the Midwest. A trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the western atlantic. This will be an active rainfall pattern for the Midwest along the boundary zone between the cool weather associated with the trough in the east and the hot weather associated with the ridge to the west. It will be a hotter and drier pattern as you head into the Plains under the ridge aloft. This pattern bears watching for its potential impact on corn and spring wheat in the northern Plains.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern Plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Rainfall mostly below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...118 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...28 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...DAYTONA BEACH FL 1.68 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first

2-3 days of the outlook period, only fair agreement later in the period. I favor today's US model but there is some uncertainty in this outlook.

The period begins with a weak trough over the Midwest, a stronger trough over western Canada and a weak to moderate ridge over the central and southern Rockies. The weak trough in the Midwest is expected to lift northward out of the Midwest while the southwest ridge builds north and then east across the plains and into the western Midwest through the middle of the outlook period.

The strong western Canada trough weakens somewhat as it moves across the Canadian Prairies region. Later in the period the Prairies trough moves over the Great Lakes region and this allows for a cooler high pressure system to move over the northern Midwest region, behind the trough. The ridge retreats to the western US and strengthens at the end of the period. This is a variable temperature pattern for the northern plains and Midwest regions, hot for a time and then cooler. Rainfall favoring the south and east Midwest areas...drier otherwise.

Longer range charts, days 11-16, show the stronger western ridge, moving eastward again across the plains and Midwest regions and then into the eastern US region. If verified this would mean another period of hot weather for the north plains and then the Midwest region. Since this would be the mid July period this situation bears watching as temperatures could be very hot.

Our overall bias at this time is for increased concern for crops in the north plains and northwest Midwest regions due to a tendency for drier and hotter weather at times. If the hotter and drier weather were to reach the eastern Midwest, crops in the area would probably benefit after the wet and cool spring and early summer period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.

DELTA: Rain late last week due to post tropical depression Cindy. This will maintain adequate to surplus moisture for crops and is favorable, except for areas of local flooding.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain and scattered thunderstorms during this week and early next week will maintain mostly favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans in western areas while in the east warmer, drier weather is needed.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): More rain would benefit developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat. However the lack of any hot weather limits stress at this time. Drier, hotter weather is expected in the region and lasting for an extended period next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Corn/Sorghum): No significant concerns for mature wheat and the wheat harvest at this time, although showers may at times cause slow downs to the harvest. A cooler period will favor developing corn and sorghum in the region during this week. Hot weather is expected next week.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Mainly dry or with only a few light showers during the next 7 to 10 days. Temperatures above to well above normal. Dryland fields could use more rain to support favorable development.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat): Showers during the week and more seasonal temperatures will favor crops, except in the northwest where fieldwork delays are still of some concern.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): More rain is needed for favorable development of corn and soybeans, especially in the western crop areas. Drier and hotter weather early this week while late in the week we may see some increase in scattered shower activity and less hot weather. Rainfall looks to average below normal during the next ten days.

INDIAN MONSOON: Monsoon rainfall continues to improve across central and northwest India at this time. Significant rainfall has or will occur through key growing areas for oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and other crops. This will likely include beneficial rainfall in the soybean belt of west-central India.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry yesterday. Overnight light to moderate showers and thundershowers developed with some locally heavier. The activity favored western, central and northeast areas...except little occurred in eastern South Dakota. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

East: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

Forecast...

West: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers favoring eastern and southern locations today into tonight. Heavy showers and thunderstorms favoring central and southern areas during Thursday. Light to locally moderate showers favoring northern and eastern areas mostly early Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east today, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Light to moderate showers favoring western and southern areas Sunday, eastern and southern areas Monday. Temperatures average below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday and Monday.

East: Scattered afternoon or evening thundershowers mostly in northwest and north areas today or tonight, west-central and north areas during Thursday or Thursday night. Scattered light to locally moderate showers during Friday.

Temperatures average below normal today, near normal tomorrow, near to below normal Friday.

Light showers may linger early Saturday in east and southern areas, dry later Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers develop through western and central areas during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal, although southern areas may be somewhat warmer than normal at times.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal during the first 1-3 days of the outlook period, somewhat more variable later in the period. Rainfall should average near to above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Light showers with locally heavier occurred yesterday or last night from southeast Montana through southern and eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota and South Dakota. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Light to locally moderate showers may linger in northern Minnesota today. A few light showers favoring north-central and east areas during Thursday. Dry or with only very light showers favoring eastern areas Friday.

Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal tomorrow and Friday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring western and southern areas during Saturday. Dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average near normal west, below normal central and east, Saturday. Temperatures above normal west and near normal east Sunday, above normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average mostly above normal during this period. Rainfall should average mostly below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Scattered light to locally moderate occurred through southern Nebraska, northwest and central Kansas yesterday or last night. Showers and thundershowers occurred in northeast Texas yesterday. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal through western and central areas, near normal through the east.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northeast areas today.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers through northeast to east-central areas Thursday or Thursday night, through southeast and south-central areas during Friday or Friday night. Temperatures average near to above normal north, above normal central and south, today and Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal north and central areas and above normal south Friday.

Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring southern areas during Saturday, north to northeast areas Sunday, north and east areas Monday.

Temperatures average below normal Saturday, above normal west and near to below normal east Sunday, above normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in the period, above to possibly well above normal late in the period.

Rainfall should average near to mostly below normal through western and southern areas, near to above normal through northeast and east-central areas.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Wheat)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Scattered to widely scattered showers and some light rain favoring north and southeast Alberta, western Saskatchewan and portions of Manitoba yesterday or overnight. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Light to locally moderate showers favoring western and northeast areas today, south-central and eastern areas tomorrow. Drier Friday.

Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

Episodes of mostly light showers through central and northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan Saturday through Monday. Mostly dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged near to above normal west and below normal east Saturday, warmer Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall near to above normal west and north-central areas, near to below normal south-central and east locations.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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