DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...92 AT 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINN, TX

LOW TUE...11 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT, AND 37 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAHSATCH, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CST TUESDAY...KANSAS CITY, MO 2.42 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America. There is a trough in the Central with another in the West. Both troughs will move eastward for the rest of the week. Another trough is up around Alaska and will send additional troughs and disturbances across the U.S. through next week. This pattern is fairly textbook during El Nino and should be very frequent over the next several months.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

The forecast has turned much quieter and drier across much of the U.S. for next week, though some small disturbances moving through the country could produce a few areas of showers. With the background ridge in place, expect temperatures to be largely above normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is still getting some showers into the far eastern Dakotas on Wednesday, but it should be much drier across the region through next week. It will also be warmer as well. That combination will allow for much more fieldwork to be done.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system produced widespread rain over the last several days. Though some showers will fall around Oklahoma on Thursday, it will be drier for the rest of the week and probably next week as well. The recent precipitation will slow down fieldwork progress a touch, but is helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat, and may help to reduce drought across parts of the south.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system continues to shift through the region over the next couple of days, though most of the precipitation will exit with the cold front moving through on Wednesday.

Despite some delays to fieldwork, soil moisture should be improving for some areas that grow winter wheat, and should help with the drought in some areas of the region. Drier and continued warm weather are expected for next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front moved through on Tuesday night with widespread moderate precipitation that should help with water levels on the Mississippi River, but massive deficits continue to be in place across most of the region. The overall El Nino pattern that is unfolding should be beneficial to the region over the next several months.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Showers across central Brazil are not falling at the coverage or intensity that producers would prefer to see at this time of year. Monsoon showers should be picking up, but have yet to really do so. Much of the rain that has fallen over the last 6-8 weeks has come via fronts moving through the country. That has led to heavy rainfall across the south, but weakening rainfall across the central, and soil moisture is on the low side for early soybean growth. Overall, fronts are still expected to produce much of the rain for the first half of November, and there will be several over the next 10 days, and there could be enough rain to at least keep conditions from becoming too poor for developing soybeans. But soil moisture sits on the edge of being just enough and too dry. A turn drier could have a significant impact on developing soybeans. Meanwhile, southern areas are getting enough rain to have good conditions, but some areas are a bit too wet, increasing the risks of diseases, weeds, and flooding issues.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A couple of fronts are pushing through the country this week with scattered showers. Overall, soil moisture is favorable, though cooler temperatures behind fronts have led to uneven growth for wheat and corn. Soybean planting will increase throughout the month of November, and could be helped by the frequent frontal passages. As long as the rain continues as a good pace, conditions will be favorable for future growth.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system in the eastern Mediterranean Sea produced scattered showers for Italy and southeastern Europe over the last several days, the latter of which really needed the rain. A complicated weather pattern may bring some areas of showers to western Europe over the next few days, which could still use some more soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. A better chance for widespread rain across the continent will move through next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been somewhat frequent in Ukraine this fall, but western Russia has been very dry. A system moving through the Black Sea may bring some showers through the region this week, but is not forecast to produce widespread heavy rain that western Russia needs. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next month from north to south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Some showers moved through Australia over the last several days, but were mostly light. It should be drier for the rest of the week, though showers will be possible near the east coasts.

A system will likely move through next week with scattered showers in the east as well. More of the winter wheat and canola are heading toward maturity and rainfall will be less helpful going forward for winter crops. Any rain would be more beneficial for improving soil moisture for summer crops, though.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Favorable rain has been falling across south-central China lately, improving soil moisture for winter wheat and canola. Additional rain is forecast there this weekend. Corn and soybean areas farther north have been much drier, which should continue good harvest weather to finish up.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.