DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...94 AT BRADLEY, CA

LOW SUN...11 AT ANGEL FIRE, NM

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...JUNEAU, AK 0.25 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough moving into the West.

Though part of that trough will move through Canada this week, it will take until the weekend before the main portion of it moves northeast into Canada and then eastward. However, another trough will take its place in the West as the ridge stays firm. It may take until later next week or even later for the western trough to finally move eastward.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they treat the second western trough different next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through Canada this weekend, bringing some cooler air to the far north for a brief time, but overall temperatures should remain above normal east of the Rockies. The front to the system could produce some showers in the Plains going into early next week, but drier weather is more likely until the western trough can move eastward later next week, weekend, or possibly even later into early November.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was warm and dry over the weekend, which is allowing for good fieldwork conditions for the next several days. A system will move into the region on Friday and bring scattered showers, strong winds, and a non-zero chance for some snow on the backside of the system. More likely than not any snow will fall north of the border. Drier weather will likely follow behind the system for at least early next week. This should help producers accelerate their progress on fall fieldwork.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was warm and dry over the weekend. Though a few spotty showers may be possible at times, it should remain largely warm and dry for most of the week. A system will move into the Northern Plains on Friday and its cold front will move into the region and stall, which may produce some areas of showers over the weekend and maybe into early next week. Otherwise, drier weather should favor more fieldwork.

Drought remains a problem in the region, even after the recent bouts of heavy precipitation, but soil moisture is still largely favorable for winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought areas of heavy rain last week, but drier weather this week should help soils to drain and producers to continue to get back to accelerating their fieldwork progress.

There are still some drier areas out there where winter wheat is typically planted, which could be somewhat of a concern with all the warm and dry weather this week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the region, but are allowing fieldwork to accelerate. If not for some heavier rain farther north, water levels on the Mississippi River would be concerning. Even still, water levels are forecast to fall this week, and could be a concern if the weather pattern does not favor the Midwest or Delta as is currently forecast for the next couple of weeks.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Scattered showers became isolated over central Brazil this weekend. Recent showers have been enough to encourage more planting and be in relative fair condition. Southern areas have had some time to dry out a bit, which is helping some areas that have been too wet to recover. However, another system will move through southern areas this week, with potential for another system over the weekend. Rain there could be heavy again and include some severe weather. Meanwhile, showers in central Brazil are forecast to be spotty this week. They may increase this weekend if the systems can push far enough northward, but it is a little concerning that rainfall has been falling at a below normal pace and intensity so far this season.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It was dry and cold over the weekend. Some areas in the south may have seen a frost as well, but would have been spotty. Despite the cold weather, producers are generally planting at a normal pace for mid-October. Scattered showers this week should help to maintain soil moisture without being too heavy, but cold air is forecast to be in place for the next couple of weeks, creating some unfavorable conditions in some areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A complicated weather system moved west across Europe over the weekend with scattered showers across the western half of the continent. That system should now push eastward this week with more active weather in the forecast behind it. That may mean more frequent precipitation in some areas, though Spain may struggle to see much precipitation. Dryness is still an issue across much of the continent as producers are counting on some good precipitation over the next couple of months for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system stalled over Ukraine produced showers over the weekend, but very little has fallen in western Russia lately, where conditions are much less favorable for winter wheat establishment. Showers will be spottier this week, but may include some of those Russian areas that need it.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers fell in Queensland over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Showers will continue in Queensland for much of the week, which is favorable there, but showers will be much more spotty or non-existent elsewhere this week. Precipitation has been below-normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce somewhat decent yields. Satellite images from the country show overall fair crop health.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A large system brought widespread moderate to heavy rain across central and northeastern China over the weekend, disrupting the ongoing corn and soybean harvest. However, some areas in the south-central also picked up some rain, which is beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment. Those areas will likely see more rain early this week. However, the country is bracing for the potential of Typhoon Champi that will approaching late this week or weekend. If the typhoon hits Taiwan first, damage to mainland China will be more limited, but heavy rain and flooding could still occur.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures variable.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday.

Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures variable.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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