DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...110 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW MON...24 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...CHARLESTON, SC 1.40 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a trough in eastern Canada. A disturbance is moving over the top of the ridge, continuing into eastern Canada over the next few days. The ridge will get pushed eastward this weekend as a trough moves into the West. That trough should move eastward next week while the ridge redevelops in the West again, returning to the overall stable pattern that seems to be defining October.

The U.S. and European models are much closer than they were Monday, but are still having issues with the forecast for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

There is a tropical storm starting to develop in the Gulf. Models are suggesting it moves through the Southeast over the weekend into early next week. A system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend and then eastward across the country next week with scattered showers. Some pockets of heavier rain will be possible in some areas, but models are uncertain about exactly where. There may be enough cold air for some areas in the Northern Plains to see snow. Remnants of Pacific hurricanes are likely to move into the country next week, which are causing the havoc in the forecast. It will be warm ahead of the system with a burst of colder air moving in behind it, whenever it decides to move east next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry weather continues this week, aiding in fieldwork progress. A system will move in this weekend and could produce some widespread precipitation into next week. There could even be enough cold air for some accumulating snow. Models show some potential for this, but not much confidence in the overall forecast. Either way, this system will disrupt harvest, but only briefly as the pattern still promotes an overall drier look for October.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry, warm, and sunny weather continues for the rest of the week. That will help soils to dry and producers to get out and resume fieldwork. Despite the areas of heavy rain over the last two weeks, drought is still a big issue in the region. And although wet areas will get a chance to drain, the drier pattern is not favorable for winter wheat establishment. A system will likely move through next week, but the precipitation forecast is uncertain with it. Another round or two of heavy rain will be possible, though.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather in place this week will allow fields to dry out and producers to get back out into the field for harvest, winter wheat planting, and other fieldwork. Some showers may spread into the region on Sunday and Monday due to a tropical system developing in the Gulf, but that is uncertain. Otherwise, the next chance for significant rain wouldn't come until around the middle of next week with a system moving through.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Drought continues to grow in the region, but recent heavy rainfall farther north is helping to keep water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Dry weather is expected to continue this week, but we are watching a developing tropical system in the Gulf. Some models bring some heavy rain into the region this weekend.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil over the last couple of days and will continue some showers in central Brazil for another day or two as well. Some areas are a bit too wet in the south, otherwise the good coverage of rain there should be overall favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting. Southern areas will continue to have fronts move in with scattered showers into next week, but central Brazil may see the coverage be overall inadequate as the typical monsoon showers aren't developing just yet. Models suggest better development next week, but they will need to come or we could see dryness issues developing quickly this month.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved through over the weekend with widespread showers but light amounts. Temperatures are again falling behind the system and overall below-normal temperatures continue to impact the country.

Though not producing frosts, the cooler temperatures are keeping soil temperatures down, especially across the south, and wheat growth and corn planting slow. The positive news for producers is that the weather pattern continues to be quite active and scattered showers are forecast somewhere in the country each day through next week. That should help to keep soil moisture up or improve in much of the country.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system developed on the tail end of a front across Spain over the weekend which will move east this week, producing favorable, widespread precipitation to a lot of the continent except in the southeast, where it will stay unfavorably drier. The weather pattern will stay active across far northern areas of the continent, and may get some showers into France, Germany, and Poland this weekend and next week, but getting rain farther south may be a difficult task, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment in these areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent dryness has helped producers do fieldwork, but has created mixed conditions for winter wheat establishment with fair conditions in Ukraine, but poorer conditions in western Russia. Very little precipitation is expected until a front moves in on Friday and moves across this weekend. Even so, getting rain south through the region will be tough to do.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through eastern areas over the weekend, but a lot of areas stayed unfavorably dry. A system will move into western areas midweek and then eastern areas for late this week and weekend.

While the showers will be helpful, rainfall amounts continue to be largely below normal at a critical time for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through central and northeast China over the weekend, causing some disruption to the ongoing corn and soybean harvest. However, it'll be largely dry this week, which should get producers out harvesting. Soil moisture is currently adequate for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment, but more rain would be favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

East: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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