Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A week of dry weather for the U.S. but an eye on the tropics in both the Gulf and Pacific, and a continued focus toward South America planting are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

FAVORABLE FIELDWORK WEATHER FOR MIDWEST

Dry weather across the Midwest this week will allow fields to dry out and producers to get back out into the field for harvest, winter wheat planting, and other fieldwork. Some showers may spread into the region on Sunday and Monday due to a tropical system developing in the Gulf, but that is uncertain. Otherwise, the next chance for significant rain wouldn't come until around the middle of next week with a system moving through.

DRIER WEATHER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FAVORING A RETURN TO FIELDWORK

Dry, warm, and sunny weather continues in the Central and Southern Plains for the rest of the week. That will help soils dry and producers get out and resume fieldwork. Despite the areas of heavy rain over the last two weeks, drought is still a big issue in the region. And although wet areas will get a chance to drain, the drier pattern is not favorable for winter wheat establishment. A system will likely move through next week, but the precipitation forecast is uncertain with it. Another round or two of heavy rain will be possible, though.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING DRY UNTIL WEEKEND

Dry weather continues in the Northern Plains this week, aiding in fieldwork progress. A system will move in this weekend and could produce some widespread precipitation into next week. There could even be enough cold air for some accumulating snow. Models show some potential for this, but not much confidence in the overall forecast. Either way, this system will disrupt harvest, but only briefly as the pattern still promotes an overall drier look for October.

DELTA WATCHING THE GULF FOR A TROPICAL STORM

Drought continues to grow in the Delta, but recent heavy rainfall farther north is helping to keep water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Dry weather is expected to continue this week, but we are watching a developing tropical system in the Gulf. Some models bring some heavy rain into the region this weekend.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL, LIMITED RAIN NORTH

A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil over the last couple of days and will continue with some showers in central Brazil for another day or two as well. Some areas are a bit too wet in the south, otherwise the good coverage of rain there should be overall favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting. Southern areas will continue to have fronts move in with scattered showers into next week, but central Brazil may see the coverage be overall inadequate as the typical monsoon showers aren't developing just yet. Models suggest better development next week, but they will need to come or we could see dryness issues developing quickly this month.

COOL AND RAINY IN ARGENTINA

A system moved through Argentina over the weekend with widespread showers but light amounts. Temperatures are again falling behind the system and overall below-normal temperatures continue to impact the country. Though not producing frosts, the cooler temperatures are keeping soil temperatures down, especially across the south, and wheat growth and corn planting slow. The positive news for producers is that the weather pattern continues to be quite active and scattered showers are forecast somewhere in the country each day through next week. That should help to keep soil moisture up or improving in much of the country.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE THIS WEEK

A system developed on the tail end of a front across Spain over the weekend which will move east this week, producing favorable, widespread precipitation to a lot of Europe except in the southeast, where it will stay unfavorably drier. The weather pattern will stay active across far northern areas of the continent, and may get some showers into France, Germany, and Poland this weekend and next week, but getting rain farther south may be a difficult task, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment in these areas.

BLACK SEA REGION DRIER FOR ANOTHER WEEK

Recent dryness has helped producers do fieldwork in the Black Sea region, but has created mixed conditions for winter wheat establishment with fair conditions in Ukraine, but poorer conditions in western Russia. Very little precipitation is expected until a front moves in on Friday and moves across this weekend. Even so, getting rain south through the region will be tough to do.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA DURING DRIER OVERALL PATTERN

Some showers went through eastern Australia over the weekend, but a lot of areas stayed unfavorably dry. A system will move into western areas midweek and then eastern areas for late this week and weekend. While the showers will be helpful, rainfall amounts continue to be largely below normal at a critical time for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

LIMITED DISRUPTION TO ONGOING HARVEST IN CHINA

Scattered showers went through central and northeast China over the weekend, causing some disruption to the ongoing corn and soybean harvest. However, it'll be largely dry this week, which should get producers out harvesting. Soil moisture is currently adequate for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment, but more rain would be favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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