DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A conglomeration of troughs continues across the Central and East, a ridge is still pushing into western Canada, and another trough is moving underneath the ridge through the Southwest. That trough will continue across the far south over the next couple of days.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The main trough complex may shift a bit to the east this week, but will largely stay intact through next week, getting fed by some additional disturbances moving over or through the western ridge. The ridge may start to win out later next week and weekend, putting an end to the frost threat.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences in temperature and precipitation timing. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of smaller systems are likely to move through the country with scattered showers east of the Rockies this weekend with another couple for next week. Timing may change, but these systems are likely to be weaker with more concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms that appear to be targeting the Midwest with the greatest chances for showers. A general warm-west and cold east pattern is expected this weekend into next week, but we may see temperatures rising toward the end of the week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...102 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...15 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...WEST PALM BEACH, FL 1.98 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A conglomeration of troughs continues across the Central and East, a ridge is still pushing into western Canada, and another trough is moving underneath the ridge through the Southwest. That trough will continue across the far south over the next couple of days. The main trough complex may shift a bit to the east this week, but will largely stay intact through next week, getting fed by some additional disturbances moving over or through the western ridge.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences in temperature and precipitation timing. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of smaller systems are likely to move through the country with scattered showers east of the Rockies this weekend with another couple for next week. Timing may change, but these systems are likely to be weaker with more concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms that appear to be targeting the Midwest with the greatest chances for showers. A general warm-west and cold east pattern is expected this weekend into next week, but we may see temperatures rising toward the end of the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Pockets of isolated showers will be possible into next week. Overall though, conditions should be dry enough for fieldwork. Temperatures are not favorable this week with some frosts and freezes being fairly widespread. A western ridge pressing into the area could bring temperatures up this weekend into next week. Regardless, prospects for good planting conditions are increasing as we get deeper into May.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moving through the region will bring about more widespread precipitation for Tuesday and Wednesday, including some moderate precipitation potential for the driest areas in Nebraska and Kansas, but will also be cold enough for snow in Colorado and adjacent areas in Nebraska and Kansas. Amounts could be very heavy, which would be damaging for winter wheat or any emerging corn and soybeans. Cold temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday could also cause damage. Temperatures will moderate for later this week and next week. Additional chances for showers will flow through the region this weekend and next week, though coverage looks sparse and amounts do not look heavy like the region needs for its deep drought.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): More scattered showers and cold air will move through the region this week, targeting southern areas with the heaviest precipitation on Tuesday. Additional frosts and freezes may occur later this week, but will need the skies to be clear and winds to be calm in which to do so. Models currently have poor conditions for frost, but those may change later this week. The region will remain active with smaller storm systems continuing to push through the region Friday, this weekend, and next week. Overall, this should produce good conditions for emergence and early growth for crops in the ground, but may cause issues for those trying to plant.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent heavy rain has been improving drought conditions, but large deficits remain. A front and system moving along it will produce more rain and some severe chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional chances will be possible this weekend and next week, especially across the north. This should continue to turn the momentum toward diminishing drought, though this will be a long process even if the rain continues.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A strong cold front moved through on Sunday and has brought in another round of very cold air with frosts and freezes for the next few days, especially east. Western areas will start to warm up by the end of the week, though some cold may linger in the east into next week. Overall, this is leading to more delays in spring planting. Even though precipitation has slowed down significantly, soil moisture is very good in most areas and will help for early growth once the crop is planted.

BRAZIL (CORN): Some rain fell over the far south over the weekend, but missed a lot of the safrinha corn areas in Parana. Some showers are possible from another front moving in on Thursday night through Saturday night. But those showers will be waning as the front moves into central Brazil, typical for this time of year. Hot and dry conditions are unfavorable for filling corn in most areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybean continue to see harvest advancing, though it is a slow process for most of the country. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Soil moisture has been falling a bit ahead of the winter wheat planting, but conditions are still favorable. A system moving through Wednesday and Thursday should add some moisture to wheat areas as planting starts up this month.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers in the western are spreading eastward this week, getting some needed rain into the dry northeast. Another system will move into the west on Friday, spreading showers eastward this weekend and especially next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for wheat on most of the continent or improving like areas in the northeast. Though showers may disrupt spring planting a bit, the overall effect is positive.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue over the next couple of weeks. Rains are coming at a pace that is favorable for most areas, though western portions of Ukraine and Belarus could use more rain. They seem to be the target of more of the systems coming out of Europe.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved across the southeast over the weekend and were heavier than forecast. However, deficits are still large and conditions are still dry, though some time was bought for the wheat and canola crops. A few more showers may hit Victoria on Wednesday, but drier conditions are still favored, producing overall poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. The developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with poor winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Very limited showers over the next 10-14 days is not favorable either. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring, but those have been diminishing lately as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday, heavy snow west. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to well below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday, north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, falling Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers south Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, above normal north and below normal south Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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