DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION UPDATE:

There is a ridge in the East while a trough is moving along the Canadian border. Another trough in the Pacific will move into the Southwest this weekend and move through the country next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Additional troughs will move into the West and challenge the eastern ridge later next week and into late April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through northern areas early-to-mid next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some colder temperatures will sneak down from Canada behind the early week system and possibly the late week one as well.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East while a trough is moving along the Canadian border. Another trough in the Pacific will move into the Southwest this weekend and move through the country next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Additional troughs will move into the West and challenge the eastern ridge later next week and into late April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through northern areas early-to-mid next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some colder temperatures will sneak down from Canada behind the early week system and possibly the late week one as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...101 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...3 BELOW ZERO AT SARANAC LAKE, NY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...WEST PALM BEACH, FL 3.54 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East while a trough is moving along the Canadian border. Another trough in the Pacific will move into the Southwest this weekend and move through the country next week. Additional troughs will move into the West and challenge the eastern ridge later next week and into late April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through northern areas early-to-mid next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some colder temperatures will sneak down from Canada behind the early week system and possibly the late week one as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers will move through on Thursday. Another system will move through this weekend with warmer air and some scattered showers into Monday and another system will be possible late next week. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will stall out in the region on Thursday and Friday before lifting northward on Saturday as another system moves in. Yet another system will move through early next week. All features will bring chances for scattered showers, including to the deepest drought areas that are building in the west. The showers will come in batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting. Drought remains a problem despite the active pattern, which is forecast to continue through most of April.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will remain active with showers through Friday, lifting northward on Saturday with some warmer air moving in. A system or two will then bring more scattered showers early-to-mid next week, providing plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for spring planting. However, some areas may receive too much and ponding may be a concern for planting as well. Though temperatures are rising, the 50-degree soil temperature mark is only creeping into southern areas and frequent changes in air temperature will mean a slow progress northward for the rest of the month.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drought is still heavily entrenched in the region. There may be some isolated showers into the weekend, but drier conditions this week have not be favorable for soil moisture. That will make planting and early growth more difficult. A few fronts will approach the region with some showers next week, but consistent, heavy rains are not in the forecast.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front is providing a brief burst of moderate rain across central Brazil for Thursday. But precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. Another front will enhance showers across the south this weekend into early next week, but wet season rainfall does appear to be winding down early in central Brazil. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn, as wet season rainfall is counted on for decent corn yields. If the rains indeed shut down early, prior to the start of May, then losses should be expected.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to the country last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall, as will another early next week.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A couple of smaller systems are moving through Europe this week with more focused areas of precipitation, previously across Spain and for Germany on Thursday. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting outside of the northeast, which is drier. Showers may be more widespread this weekend into next week as a system slowly passes through the continent.

Northeast areas still look drier, though.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A stalled system will continue to produce rounds of showers into the weekend and possibly next week as well. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A few showers are going through southeastern areas on Thursday, but many areas have been dry this week. That is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Drier conditions are forecast next week as well, discouraging wheat and canola planting.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though a few showers went through on Wednesday, showers have largely been missing the North China Plain this spring, which is a little concerning for winter wheat. Precipitation has been very low since last fall. And while global satellites seem to think that soil moisture is favorable there, they may be wrong. Systems will continue across south-central China, but favor more of the canola areas than the wheat areas on the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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