Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in parts of the U.S. last week, more coming up for some areas this week, and isolated showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

DISTURBANCES BRINGING NEAR-DAILY SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A large system moved through the Midwest over the weekend with widespread heavy precipitation, including mixed precipitation over the far north. Areas in drought saw some of the heaviest precipitation, which should improve soil moisture for planting and early growth in much of the region. Colder temperatures early this week should hold back planting more than soil moisture at this point. A system will move through on Wednesday night and stall a front across the south for Thursday where showers may continue into the weekend and perhaps lift back northward again as well. With more showers expected next week as a system moves through, there is plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for planting. Some areas may have the opposite problem with too much rainfall that may cause delays.

AREAS OF RAIN FALLING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK

Areas in the southwestern Plains have seen much less precipitation out of the more active weather pattern from last week and drought is increasing in some areas again. The pattern does seem to be a bit more favorable for a front to stall out in the region on Thursday and bring chances for showers to many of these western areas through at least early next week. The showers do look like batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting.

COLDER, PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain and snow moved through the Northern Plains over the holiday weekend, though much of the snow has melted except over eastern North Dakota. Another system will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday with scattered showers. Another will move through this weekend with more scattered showers into early next week. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating more snow and slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

DELTA GOT SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION, BUT DRIER THIS WEEK

A front moved through the Delta on Saturday into Sunday and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some areas of heavy rain fell as well. With how deep the drought is in the region, the rainfall has certainly helped, but will not wipe away the drought. There may be some isolated showers at various times this week, but drier conditions this week should not be favorable for soil moisture.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front will move through Brazil over the next day or two and produce widespread showers across the south, and a brief burst of moderate rain across the central, but precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. A similar situation may repeat itself this weekend into early next week. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn as the end of the wet season rainfall is rather disappointing for many areas.

SOME SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to Argentina over the last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE THIS WEEK

A couple of smaller systems will move through Europe this week with more focused areas of precipitation, mostly across Spain and then Germany. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A system is stalling out in the Black Sea region and will produce rounds of showers for the rest of the week. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

AUSTRALIA COULD USE SOME MORE RAIN

A few showers went through southern Australia over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. That is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Showers will be limited but continue across the south for the next couple of days.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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