DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...100 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...7 AT SAINT MARY, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...BUFFALO AND SYRACUSE, NY 1.27 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and troughs in the West and Pacific. The two western troughs will move eastward through the country with storm systems over the next several days with the second one being a bit stronger and pushing the ridge off the East Coast. A new ridge will move in behind it next week while more troughs move into the West.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is likely to go through Canada early next week and may bring some showers to the Great Lakes. A larger system may move through the country for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will rise in the middle of next week but should fall again behind the late-week system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Two more systems will move through the region through Saturday, offering widespread mixed precipitation and chances for heavy snow. While the precipitation will be welcome, it will be difficult to get any early fieldwork done this week. Temperatures will be colder and will largely last through next week as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers moved through on Tuesday, but two more potent systems are set to move through with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Despite being stronger, they will not hit all areas and are likely to miss the southwest where drought has quickly been growing over the last couple of months. Though conditions are mixed, this is not a good situation for most winter wheat areas.

Northern areas could be in for some accumulating ice and snow on a couple of occasions, and winds will be a little breezy with the storms moving through as well. Overall, this is a poor week to get any fieldwork done.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved through on Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and some severe weather. Rain continues on Wednesday, but two more systems will move through the region through Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some heavy rain will occur, increasing soil moisture for planting and easing dryness, but may make it difficult to get out into the fields this week. Some bursts of colder air should be enough to allow for some accumulating snow and freezing rain over northern areas Wednesday night and Thursday, and again Friday night and Saturday.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dryness and drought are a major concern as spring planting increases in April. A front will move in on Thursday and another will go through this weekend. Despite chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms, it will not be enough to reduce drought for too many areas and next week is likely to be drier.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers in Brazil continue to be isolated through the weekend. The country needs more consistent heavy rainfall during the last month of the wet season for a good safrinha corn crop. A front moving up from Argentina next week may provide some more widespread showers, but is forecast to be a brief boost. Showers are forecast to go isolated again after it passes through.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front will keep showers going for much of the week across the central and south before moving north this weekend. Rain will be somewhat favorable, but only for late-planted crops as the early season corn harvest continues to march on and early-planted soybeans have started to be harvested as well.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to produce scattered showers around the eastern Mediterranean for the rest of the week, boosting moisture for winter crops. Other areas of the continent will be drier for the rest of the week.

Northeastern areas have seen a few showers, but need more. Meanwhile, Spain has been a bit drier, allowing them to recover from heavy rain over the winter.

More active weather is expected next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Waves of scattered showers continue in the region into next week. With soil moisture mixed around the region, the showers will be helpful as wheat continues to green up and thoughts turn toward spring planting.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain across western areas over the weekend helped to prep soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

Some disturbances will move through this week, but precipitation will be limited and favor western areas. Dryness in the east will favor cotton and sorghum harvest, but more rain is needed in these areas for wheat and canola planting.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been moving through the Yangtze River Valley lately, favoring some canola areas, but many wheat areas on the North China Plain have been drier since the winter. Showers continue to target central and southern China for the next few days, but a system will move through on Friday and Saturday with some needed precipitation for northern areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday, falling Saturday, below normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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