Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Two more big systems moving through the Northern U.S., drought reduction in the Central U.S., and a potential boost for dry areas in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

TWO MORE BIG STORMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system moved through the Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread favorable rainfall but also produced some severe weather. Another system will produce a mix of rain and snow and strong winds for Thursday and Friday. Another will move through this weekend, which is forecast to bring heavy precipitation, snow, strong winds, potential blizzard conditions, and then a significant drop in temperature. Another disturbance will move through in the middle of next week with a mix of rain and snow before temperatures rise above normal again. Recent and forecast precipitation will help to reduce drought across much of the region prior to spring planting.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stronger system moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday with stronger storms and heavier rain in the southeast and some snow across the north. A system will pass through this weekend, but will target Nebraska over the rest of the region and even then may not bring much precipitation. Drier areas in the southwest are becoming concerning for winter wheat, particularly in the Texas Panhandle, while drought areas in the southeast got some improvement, creating mixed conditions. Winds will occasionally be quite strong through the weekend, which may cause some damage and increase the risk of wildfires. Extreme warmth next week could break records, leading to more widespread drought increases.

TWO MORE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The weather pattern remains chaotic for the Northern Plains with two more systems through the weekend. Some heavy precipitation will be possible, including heavy snow. Strong winds from both systems may create some areas of damage. There are some drier areas that really need this precipitation and probably more before spring planting commences.

DROUGHT REDUCTION, BUT STILL IN PLACE FOR THE DELTA

A system brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Delta region on Wednesday, adding to the heavy rain from the weekend and easing drought. Rainfall deficits have been large over the winter though, and this rainfall will not be enough to completely eliminate the drought. A strong cold front will move through this weekend with some showers, but drier conditions are likely to resume afterward. After some drought reduction, it appears that the dryness could turn the momentum back toward increasing the drought later this month.

REGULAR RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

Scattered showers have filled back in across central Brazil, being more favorable for newly planted safrinha corn. That should continue through next week, though areas in the south will be much drier with poorer conditions. A couple of fronts may produce some better precipitation there next week. Soil moisture is still on the low side and there is limited time to stack soil moisture before the wet season rainfall shuts down in the next 6-8 weeks.

DRIEST AREAS OF ARGENTINA SEEING RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

It has been very dry in Argentina this week, though spotty showers continue to be possible for the next few days, mainly across the south and west. Spots in the southeast are particularly dry and in need of rainfall. A front is forecast to move through this weekend with more widespread precipitation, and another is expected for early-mid next week. But time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact for filling corn and soybeans as early planted corn continues to be harvested while harvest will pick up for soybeans late this month into April.

SPAIN STILL WET, EASTERN EUROPE DRIER

Spain has been very wet this winter, which may be too much of a good thing as some flooding and soggy conditions could be bogging down wheat there. Though some showers will move through France, Germany, and the UK, the rest of Europe continues to be drier this week, somewhat unfavorable for winter wheat that is starting to awaken from dormancy at least across central areas. Northern Germany and Poland are in need of some more moisture before that happens, but Poland may not see much through next week.

DRIER IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Drier conditions are back in the Black Sea region after some limited coverage and amounts over the last couple of months. Patchy dryness still exists in the region. Higher temperatures through next week will awaken some of the southern areas from dormancy. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of far southern Russia that is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall early next week.

BREAK IN HEAVY RAIN FOR AUSTRALIA

Recent heavy rain has improved soil moisture but also caused some flooding in eastern Australia. Drier weather continues through the weekend, which should be more beneficial for cotton and sorghum to recover. A complicated system will move through southeastern areas early next week. Showers may or may not hit much of the farmland in the region.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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