Ag Weather Forum

Forecasts for the balance of 2026 largely call for the Pacific Ocean El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) temperature and atmospheric pattern to transition from a weak La Nina now to a strong El Nino by the last quarter of this year. And when this happens, analog-year analysis by DTN's long-range forecast team finds that 2026's summer temperatures and precipitation could very well be favorable for some big corn production totals.

El Nino represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina represents the cool phase of the ENSO cycle. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center noted that "El Nino and La Nina are naturally occurring phenomena that result from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific ... The El Nino and La Nina related patterns of tropical rainfall cause changes in the weather patterns around the globe."

Analog years, or years with, as the National Weather Service noted, "A historical instance of a given meteorological scenario or feature that is used for comparison with another scenario or feature... " are useful in helping form a general outlook on what lies ahead. And for 2026, DTN's experts identified three years with the highest relationship to what we are seeing now in the Pacific Ocean and what is forecast. Those years are 2023, 2015 and 2009. These years featured solid corn production.

What are the conditions that dovetail with prospects for a big corn crop? Generally, temperatures that are above but not much above normal, and precipitation on at least an occasional basis during the growing season. Corn has shown an impressive tendency in the last few seasons to bring good yield at harvest even with less precipitation than desired.

USDA's Annual Crop Production reports for the 2023, 2015 and 2009 crop years have the following details:

2023: Corn production was estimated at a record high 15.3 billion bushels (bb). Average yield was estimated at a record high 177.3 bushels per acre (bpa).

2015: Corn production was estimated at 13.6 bb. Average yield was estimated at 168.4 bpa, the second highest on record.

2009: Corn production is estimated at a record 13.2 bb. Average yield was also a record at 165.2 bpa.

Not every La Nina to El Nino year brings a big corn number. DTN's top five analog years conclude with 1951 and 2002. In 1951, corn production was described as below average due to periods of heavy rain and frost damage. And in 2002, drought in many areas led to a drop of 5% in total corn production and a drop in yield of 8.2 bpa compared with the previous year.

A bumper corn crop is certainly not guaranteed at this point in late winter. Nonetheless, indications from the analogs offer some suggestive details about how this year's harvest could look when the yield monitors are verified.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.