Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued cold air in the U.S. and dryness in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MIDWEST STAYING COLD, WARMER NEXT WEEK

Clippers will continue to bring reinforcements of cold air to the Midwest through the weekend. There is not much wheat that is exposed or with low snow cover, but there are some areas that may sustain some damage. A clipper moving through Sunday and Monday will usher in some warmer air for next week, but will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover across the south and east.

COLD AIR CONTINUES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will be reinforced in the Central and Southern Plains by a couple of cold fronts through this weekend before temperatures eventually rise above normal next week to help melt off the snow. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold while other areas will see some damage. The cold will stress cattle for a while longer yet as well.

PUSH OF WARMER AIR LEADING TO PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A burst of cold air moving down through the Dakotas will clash with warmer air trying to move into Montana and create a burst of snow across the middle of the region that could be moderate for Thursday and Friday. Another clipper moving through this weekend will flush out the cold air and bring in both a burst of mixed precipitation and warmer air that will stick around for most of next week.

WATER LEVELS RISING ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Recent heavy precipitation is helping to raise water levels on the Mississippi and local rivers. There are issues with infrastructure from the weekend's big winter storm, and extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans throughout the week, though harvest is increasing, and the rain is becoming less helpful in that regard. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are moving back in through the weekend. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop though, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

DRY THEME CONTINUES FOR ARGENTINA

It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, and spotty showers that moved through since the weekend have missed a lot of primary corn and soybean areas. And while a front should come through this weekend with additional showers, models are trending back to limited or no precipitation for the primary corn and soybean areas. Soil moisture and crop conditions are low and are expected to continue falling until the weather pattern becomes more active. Models are suggestive of some beneficial, though sporadic rainfall, in early February. Occasional high temperatures this week may add to the stresses as well.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

The weather pattern has been quite active over the vast majority of Europe for some time, continuing to be favorable for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat across the south. The same active weather pattern continues through next week as well. There is very little concern for winter crops across the continent.

COLD AIR RETURNING TO BLACK SEA REGION THIS WEEKEND

Though warmer air has moved into the Black Sea region this week, another burst of arctic air is set to descend upon the region this weekend and continue for several days into next week. The harshest cold is forecast over Ukraine, which has better snow cover, but may have a bit too much melting from the warmth this week. That could renew the risk of winterkill on winter wheat. Some damage may have occurred over the last week's arctic cold as well. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

FRONT STALLING FOR NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA NEXT WEEK

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, as spotty showers are not enough to battle the higher summer heat. Even the remnants of tropical storms cannot seem to hit the primary agricultural areas with any significant moisture. Dry weather continues for most areas into next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum. However, a front may stall over northeastern areas next week that may provide some beneficial rainfall for northern New South Wales into southern Queensland.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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