DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a strong ridge across the U.S. There is a trough in northern Canada and another off the West Coast. The western trough will move eastward this weekend, pushing through the northern U.S. and deepening over eastern Canada next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will fill right back in behind it across the West and spread through the U.S. next week. Another trough will develop then in western Canada later next week. The western trough is likely to send some big energy eastward in early January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is deeper with the trough next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A storm system will move through the country this weekend with scattered showers. It should bring through a quick burst of some colder air. Another system will move through like a clipper in the middle of next week, reinforcing the colder air for the eastern half of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...89 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...11 BELOW ZERO AT 4 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ESTCOURT STATION, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...CONCORD, NH 0.25 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a strong ridge across the U.S. There is a trough in northern Canada and another off the West Coast. The western trough will move eastward this weekend, pushing through the northern U.S. and deepening over eastern Canada next week. The ridge will fill right back in behind it across the West and spread through the U.S. next week. Another trough will develop then in western Canada later next week. The western trough is likely to send some big energy eastward in early January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is deeper with the trough next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A storm system will move through the country this weekend with scattered showers. It should bring through a quick burst of some colder air. Another system will move through like a clipper in the middle of next week, reinforcing the colder air for the eastern half of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Cold air lurking in Canada has been leaking into the north and may continue over the next few days, but it should be overall warm. A stronger cold front moving through on Saturday will send temperatures down for a day or two before they pop back up next week. Another colder shot could be possible later next week, too.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will be record warm over the next few days. A cold front will move through this weekend with a temperature drop, but will still be near to above normal behind it, and be warm again next week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air is awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warmer air is flooding the region this week, melting what is left of the snowpack in many areas. A system will move through on Thursday and Friday, which will bring some showers, mostly as rain and freezing rain. Another system will move through this weekend with more potential showers, a burst of some colder air, and lake-effect snow. Another front and burst of cold may come in to start the new year.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Warmth continues to melt snow across the Midwest, which will give a very limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. An overall dry forecast through the end of the year and into January is also concerning for river transportation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front stalled across the south will be there for the rest of the week, producing widespread and largely beneficial rainfall, though some flooding may occur. Scattered showers continue over much of west-central Brazil this week, boosting soil moisture for soybeans that continue to move into the pod-fill stage. Some areas in the east in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais are getting much less precipitation this week, which could be concerning as temperatures should be very hot when it is not raining. Rain is forecast to move back into these areas next week, though.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front remains stalled across the far north for the rest of the week. Another front will move through this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather across the south, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Showers continue across the Mediterranean for the next few days, being favorable for vegetative winter wheat across the south. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. Showers will move through on Friday with another burst over the weekend, though Ukraine is favored over southwest Russia. The precipitation will come mostly as snow and the region will need a thick blanket to protect the wheat. Areas that don't could see some winterkill.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture is still mixed around the wheat belt. Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend and continue in the northeast for the next few days. But the rest of the country is forecast to dry out to end the calendar year. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition for early growth.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. Very little is forecast through the end of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday.

East: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Lake-effect snow Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday.

Temperatures near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers west. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, mostly west.

Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.