DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. and Canada with a trough off the West Coast. The trough will wobble around the West through next week. Another trough currently in Alaska will move across Canada this weekend and early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will redevelop across Canada behind the trough but it may not last long. We could see another trough moving through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in their ensembles, but they have very widespread solutions for next week and beyond. I will use a blend but favor the European ensembles for now.

A front will produce showers as it moves through the Central Plains and Midwest early next week. We could see another front moving down from Canada later next week and weekend with more widespread precipitation, though models are not really sure what to do with the trough that moves through Canada late next week just yet. Temperatures will likely be a little cooler behind the front next week, but models disagree drastically on how cool that air may be.

The same goes for the possible front for late next week and weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...101 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...26 AT SARANAC LAKE, NY AND 2 MILES EAST OF ALFRED, NY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SALEM, OR 0.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. and Canada with a trough off the West Coast. The trough will wobble around the West through next week. Another trough currently in Alaska will move across Canada this weekend and early next week. The ridge will redevelop across Canada behind the trough but it may not last long. We could see another trough moving through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in their ensembles, but they have very widespread solutions for next week and beyond. I will use a blend but favor the European ensembles for now.

A front will produce showers as it moves through the Central Plains and Midwest early next week. We could see another front moving down from Canada later next week and weekend with more widespread precipitation, though models are not really sure what to do with the trough that moves through Canada late next week just yet. Temperatures will likely be a little cooler behind the front next week, but models disagree drastically on how cool that air may be.

The same goes for the possible front for late next week and weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A weak front has moved into the region and may produce some showers for the next couple of days. Better chances exist over the weekend, though. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the drydown of crops as well as harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Though a few spotty showers are possible, warm and largely dry conditions continue in most areas for the next few days, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region over the weekend and may produce showers into early next week. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though a couple of spotty showers may develop, warm and dry conditions continue for the next few days, favoring fieldwork. A front will produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, with better chances for widespread showers early next week.

Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures should take a dive behind this front, but to what degree is unknown as models disagree greatly for next week's forecast.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Warm and dry weather that continues into next week is favorable for harvest, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week's rainfall. Largely drier conditions this fall would cause transportation issues for much of the season.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will continue to produce rainfall in southern Brazil through Saturday, favorable for planting and early growth.

Another front is forecast to bring more showers through early next week.

Central Brazil is much drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent, which looks to occur in mid-October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front continues over far northern areas with isolated showers through Friday. Most areas have good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Another front moving through this weekend should produce more widespread rainfall but a significant drop in temperature. Soybean planting may begin this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers continue over the Balkans into Saturday, which are getting some needed rain this week. Another system will move into the west on Friday with strong winds and widespread rainfall, which will spread through most of the continent this weekend. Additional showers are forecast for next week as well. Spain is forecast to be left out, which could use more rain.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moving through southeastern Europe has been producing widespread rainfall in Ukraine over the last several days with showers lasting through the weekend. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment, especially in southwestern Russia.

Drier-than-normal weather is likely for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week's rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The country has gone into a drier stretch, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive and fill stages. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this weekend, and that may spread to southeastern areas next week in a couple of waves, but rainfall amounts are still forecast to be below normal for most areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather is starting to make its way into the forecast that could slow down progress. Central China continues to see occasional showers through next week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

East: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday.

Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal north and above normal south Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday, falling Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers northwest through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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