DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. A trough is drifting underneath it through the country throughout the weekend and into early next week. A ridge developing over the West early next week will likely push it eastward and out of the country.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Meanwhile, a trough that moves into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend will send a piece of energy eastward early next week that will temporarily push out the Canadian ridge, but the western ridge will build up into Canada next week as well, keeping the cold air locked away in the Arctic.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but differ significantly in their precipitation forecasts for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A slow-moving system in the middle of the country will shift eastward through the country early next week. Some showers may linger across the South-Central states. Another system may move into the Pacific Northwest and then the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies late next week with showers and we may see another follow a similar path next weekend. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week. Some cooler temperatures may start to move into the West late next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...111 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...21 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID, AND PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...NORFOLK, VA 3.54 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. A trough is drifting underneath it through the country throughout the weekend and into early next week. A ridge developing over the West early next week will likely push it eastward and out of the country. Meanwhile, a trough that moves into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend will send a piece of energy eastward early next week that will temporarily push out the Canadian ridge, but the western ridge will build up into Canada next week as well, keeping the cold air locked away in the Arctic.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but differ significantly in their precipitation forecasts for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A slow-moving system in the middle of the country will shift eastward through the country early next week. Some showers may linger across the South-Central states. Another system may move into the Pacific Northwest and then the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies late next week with showers and we may see another follow a similar path next weekend. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week. Some cooler temperatures may start to move into the West late next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have been moving through the region over the last several days.

Areas of showers will continue through Friday. That will favor immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Areas of showers and some heavy rain have been moving through the region with a slow-moving system over the last several days. That is pushing back the drydown of corn and soybeans. The system should push south and east out of the area this weekend. Rainfall in the southwest is favoring planting and establishment of winter wheat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures remain hot this week and probably next week as well. Isolated showers over western areas will increase late this week and spread eastward this weekend into early next week before leaving. With how slow-moving the system and showers are, some areas could pick up heavy rain, which is most likely across the west. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Only spotty showers are in the forecast for the next couple of days as recent dryness continues to cause drought to develop and water levels to lower on the Mississippi River. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest later this week into next week, which may bring some more rainfall in the region, as well as the Mississippi River system. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest is possible.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting is underway across the south, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall, but would only be a couple of days early for those in central Brazil. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October to start soybean planting there.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it over the next several days, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of rain have been increasing soil moisture for most of the continent over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break would now be more favorable, which could happen for a lot of areas this week. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the southeast could use more rainfall, though. A system is forecast to move into the continent this weekend and slowly spread eastward next week, which may bring rainfall to those southern areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system that brought rainfall to western areas this weekend and early next week will continue to bring showers eastward over the next few days with increasing rainfall for very dry areas across portions of the east. That may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought, and dryness is likely to follow after the system moves out.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Another system that only scraped through western areas should provide some beneficial rainfall later this week to eastern areas. Some colder air will follow and there is a slight risk of frost, especially behind a stronger cold front this weekend for southeastern areas of the country. Should frost develop, that could be severely damaging to reproductive wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast would likely favor some drier weather while those in central China would like showers to continue as they plant winter wheat and canola. Most areas will get what they need this week with showers across central areas and drier conditions in the northeast.

That largely continues into next week as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

East: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday.

Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northwest through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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