DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central U.S. with a larger and stronger one over the top of it in Canada. There is a trough in the East with another in the West.

The Canadian ridge will remain strong as the western trough tries to move through the Central U.S. over the weekend and largely dissipates.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move into the West and try to do something similar over the weekend into next week. This one may be able to eliminate the U.S. portion of the ridge and shift to the East by next weekend, but the Canadian ridge will largely remain in place. Yet another trough will move into the West late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models disagree with the precipitation coverage for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which seems more reasonable in allowing showers to migrate eastward through the country.

A system move north into Canada may drag a front through the middle of the country in the middle of next week, which would bring scattered showers through. Another system is likely to enter the Plains next weekend with more showers that would migrate eastward. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal regardless of the shower potential for most of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT 4 MILES SOUTH OF TOLLESON, AZ, AND PHOENIX, AZ

LOW THU...29 AT AUSTIN, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7AM CDT THURSDAY...JUNEAU, AK 1.78 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central U.S. with a larger and stronger one over the top of it in Canada. There is a trough in the East with another in the West.

The Canadian ridge will remain strong as the western trough tries to move through the Central U.S. over the weekend and largely dissipates. Another trough will move into the West and try to do something similar over the weekend into next week. This one may be able to eliminate the U.S. portion of the ridge and shift to the East by next weekend, but the Canadian ridge will largely remain in place. Yet another trough will move into the West late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models disagree with the precipitation coverage for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which seems more reasonable in allowing showers to migrate eastward through the country.

A system move north into Canada may drag a front through the middle of the country in the middle of next week, which would bring scattered showers through. Another system is likely to enter the Plains next weekend with more showers that would migrate eastward. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal regardless of the shower potential for most of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Above-normal temperatures are in the forecast through the end of the month, as is periodic precipitation.

Immature corn and soybeans would enjoy the precipitation while those looking to harvest will find tougher conditions in which to do so.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated showers will be possible through next week as systems try to move through the region with limited success. Showers may not amount to much precipitation for many areas, but some could see a heavy downpour. Temperatures will remain above normal and areas that stay dry should see more favorable conditions for harvest. Those planting winter wheat would find the showers favorable given the recent lack of rainfall and above-normal temperatures.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Above-normal temperatures are in the forecast for the rest of September. Precipitation will be harder to come by as a ridge to the north tries to block up the pattern and keep rainfall toward the west. Some showers are likely to move through, especially across northern areas, through next week in a few bursts. It is getting late for rainfall to be much help, even for greener northern areas. Any showers would cause some delay to harvest across the south, but drought continues to expand there, and rainfall is needed for winter wheat planting.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Drought continues to expand and water levels are falling on the Lower Mississippi River. Very little rainfall is in the forecast and temperatures are forecast to be above normal. Though that favors harvest, the lack of rainfall here and across the Ohio Valley continues to threaten easy transportation up and down the river.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting is underway across the south, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. A couple of fronts moving through could bring in some additional showers next week.

Models have trended downward with the precipitation coverage getting into central Brazil next week, but any rainfall would be helpful there until the wet season rains become more frequent in October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front not next week, but the week after. While that is in the long-range forecast and subject to change, producers may wait anyway. A couple of fronts will move through the country with scattered showers and keep soil conditions favorable, though.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of rain have been falling across the continent over the last couple of weeks and more are forecast to move through into next week. The rainfall is good for immature summer crops and also winter wheat planting.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A small system brought rainfall to the far southern end of the region during the middle of this week. The rainfall was helpful for what remains of filling corn and winter wheat planting. Though the pattern is active over Europe, it is not over this region, and overall drier conditions continue to plague much of the region for the end of filling corn and also winter wheat planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Significant showers across eastern areas this week have been helpful as more wheat and canola are getting into reproductive stages. However, colder temperatures have also brought a risk of frost that continues over the next several days too, which could be damaging. Another front will bring showers into Western Australia this weekend and eventually move into southeastern areas early next week, but only provide isolated showers. More are still needed in the eastern growing areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rainfall has been more consistent across central and northeastern China lately, which has favored filling corn and soybeans as well as prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting in central China. Several systems and fronts are forecast to move through over the next couple of weeks, which continues that trend. There may be some issues with the early harvest, though.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Tuesday, mostly north. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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