Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The end of a heatwave in the U.S., but coming with heavy rainfall and severe weather potential, areas of dryness in the Black Sea region and central China, and increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

HEATWAVE ENDING WITH STRONG FRONT, POSSIBLE DERECHO IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A stalled front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the southern half of the Midwest over the weekend while northwestern areas saw heavy rain on Sunday. Temperatures are rising again and would be stressful, but soil moisture is relatively high in most areas. A slow-moving front will push through this week with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures. A derecho is being talked about by the Storm Prediction Center in Minnesota and Iowa for Monday and will bear watching. Conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

Areas of isolated showers moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, but most areas were hot and dry. A front will slowly drop through the region this week, with showers waning as it gets into the Southern Plains, but with temperatures significantly falling. Showers will return to northern areas in a couple of waves next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

STRONG FRONT AND SEVERE STORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend. A front will slowly be moving through early this week with more scattered showers and severe weather potential. A derecho is being talked about by the Storm Prediction Center in South Dakota for Monday that will bear watching. Another system will be moving through late week and weekend with more. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain and severe weather could degrade quality.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND HEAT IN THE DELTA UNTIL FRONT MOVES IN

Isolated showers over the weekend continue in the Delta this week as temperatures remain hot. A stronger front will move into the region later in the week with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS, DROUGHT EXPANSION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Temperatures should rise in the Pacific Northwest this week while any showers would be isolated, causing drought expansion. Undue stress to filling spring wheat is likely, but will be overall favorable for harvesting winter wheat. Significant changes to this forecast are not expected going into August, stressing spring wheat and specialty crops through the rest of their life cycles.

HAVES AND HAVE-NOTS IN SHOWERY CANADIAN PRAIRIES PATTERN

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but missed key drier areas across the northern end of the region. Areas farther south saw some good rainfall that was highly beneficial with crops continuing to fill and edging toward harvest. Though some showers will be possible in the southwest early this week, much of the region will be drier until Friday or the weekend, when another system will move through. Whether it has scattered showers or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

FRONTS BECOMING MORE COMMON IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rain, favorable for building soil moisture for winter wheat. Showers may continue on Monday as well and a new front will move into southern areas with more showers this weekend as the weather pattern starts to become a bit more active with fronts moving into the south. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing.

MILDER AND SHOWERY FOR EUROPE

Scattered showers moved across central and eastern Europe over the weekend, helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays for the winter wheat harvest. Showers will go pinwheeling through much of the continent throughout the week, though they probably will not form over Spain. Corn areas should find the conditions mostly favorable, while the rain could cause delays or quality issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest

HEAT AND DRYNESS CONTINUES FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers will favor the western end of the Black Sea region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the central and east. That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia.

RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS AUSTRALIA

A system continued across eastern Australia with showers over the weekend and another moved into the west as well. That one will bring more showers through the country over the next few days. Another front will move through western areas this weekend with more showers. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing the drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CENTRAL CHINA DRIER AGAIN THIS WEEK?

Scattered showers fell across northeast and southern China over the weekend, but left central China drier. Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than others this season. Showers are forecast to be sparse on the North China Plain this week as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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