DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in northern Canada and another moving back into western Canada. The ridge will slide to the Plains over the weekend into next week and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough sends energy down the ridge and into the Eastern U.S. and Canada for next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August, though it will likely shift around.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and how much precipitation they produce. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A weak front will move through the Midwest early next week with scattered showers, but will be quickly followed by a stronger front that pushes through most of the eastern U.S. for mid-late next week where scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur. Temperatures will be hot ahead of that front but drop drastically behind it. The cooler temperatures may not make it down to the Southern Plains or Gulf, but most areas would find relief from the heat.

Meanwhile, temperatures should increase in the Pacific Northwest next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...108 AT TECOPA, CA, BLYTHE, CA, TOPOCK, AZ, AND PARKER STRIP, AZ

LOW WED...29 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...COLUMBIA, SC 4.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in northern Canada and another moving back into western Canada. The ridge will slide to the Plains over the weekend into next week and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough sends energy down the ridge and into the Eastern U.S. and Canada for next week.

The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August, though it will likely shift around.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and how much precipitation they produce. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A weak front will move through the Midwest early next week with scattered showers, but will be quickly followed by a stronger front that pushes through most of the eastern U.S. for mid-late next week where scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur. Temperatures will be hot ahead of that front but drop drastically behind it. The cooler temperatures may not make it down to the Southern Plains or Gulf, but most areas would find relief from the heat.

Meanwhile, temperatures should increase in the Pacific Northwest next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been and continue to move through the region for the rest of this week and probably next week as well. Heavy rain so far has led to a significant increase in soil moisture for developing crops in most areas. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and east and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Disturbances should move through the north while the south gets largely hot and dry going through next week. A front may be strong enough to bring in some milder air and showers later next week, though that is uncertain; it could stall to the north. A ridge in the region may deflect the effects of that front farther to the east, which would be more harmful. Flash drought will also be possible across the south should showers be absent.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to slowly move through the region this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms that have already led to heavy rainfall in the northwest.

Temperatures south of the front are very hot and could cause stress to the areas that are a bit drier. The front will likely stall in the east this weekend with showers continuing there and helping to relieve some of the heat stress. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week in a couple of pieces and bring through a round of much milder air that would be the end of the heatwave.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers will remain possible through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal, but a tropical disturbance moving through the Gulf could produce some heavier rain across the south going into the weekend. Northern areas will continue to have stress with less precipitation. Temperatures will continue to be extremely hot where rain is too sporadic and light. A front may not make it down into the region later next week, but could increase rainfall potential and reduce temperatures anyway.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Temperatures have been milder this week, but will increase next week. Some small disturbances have brought some showers through the region this week, and more isolated showers will be possible through the next week, but that will not be of much help. It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): The pattern has been and continues to be very active with almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others as spring wheat and canola continue into their reproductive stages. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front is moving through with limited showers on Thursday, but would get a boost from another moving through on Friday through the weekend. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat, but could disrupt the remaining safrinha harvest.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought showers to northern areas this week, and another could bring more Friday and Saturday. Fronts may start to be more frequent going into August, which could benefit vegetative winter wheat, but disrupt the remaining corn harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue across central and eastern Europe into next week and even western areas will see some occasional showers, too. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures are also trending milder going into the weekend, which will relieve some of the heat stress.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continue across the north and far west for the rest of this week and shift mainly to the far west for next week, largely favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs rain. Temperatures continue to be above normal, which is also causing stress.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought areas of moderate to heavy rainfall earlier this week. And another system is moving through the country over the next couple of days to produce more. We could see another system producing widespread rainfall this weekend into early next week as the weather pattern starts to become much more active with more widespread rainfall. The rain should help reduce the drought for much of the country's winter wheat and canola areas. Crops are still vegetative and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages next month.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas of heavy rain fell on parts of the North China Plain over the weekend and earlier this week, helping with the drought situation. But this part of the region is forecast to be drier again through next week, which is still concerning as corn and soybeans go into their reproductive stages. Systems will focus rainfall over southern China and also the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north and west.

Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers far south Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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