DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Upper Midwest and another moving into western Canada. The heat ridge is weakening as the Midwest trough moves into it. The trough in western Canada will move eastward over the next few days, deepening over the East and wiping out the ridge. A new ridge will develop behind it in the West, flipping the pattern for at least a few days.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough in the Gulf of Alaska will be somewhat permanent and send energy eastward next week and beyond, which may have a tendency to flatten out the western ridge or at least send systems through the U.S. going into mid-July. By most model accounts, this will remain an active pattern for a while.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will push through most of the country early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but could stall near the Gulf Coast for a few days where some heavy rain may develop. That is uncertain. A little system will move through the Corn Belt in the middle of next week, followed by another system for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be mild next week, but should be above normal in the Northwest and could spread to the East by next weekend.

Systems moving through the middle of the country should keep temperatures more variable.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...114 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...23 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...MACON, GA 1.48 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Upper Midwest and another moving into western Canada. The heat ridge is weakening as the Midwest trough moves into it. The trough in western Canada will move eastward over the next few days, deepening over the East and wiping out the ridge. A new ridge will develop behind it in the West, flipping the pattern for at least a few days. A trough in the Gulf of Alaska will be somewhat permanent and send energy eastward next week and beyond, which may have a tendency to flatten out the western ridge or at least send systems through the U.S. going into mid-July. By most model accounts, this will remain an active pattern for a while.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will push through most of the country early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but could stall near the Gulf Coast for a few days where some heavy rain may develop. That is uncertain. A little system will move through the Corn Belt in the middle of next week, followed by another system for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be mild next week, but should be above normal in the Northwest and could spread to the East by next weekend.

Systems moving through the middle of the country should keep temperatures more variable.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving through this week, hitting some areas with needed rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the region through the weekend, with a couple of systems providing additional showers and thunderstorms around the middle and end of next week, keeping the pattern fairly busy. That could produce more meaningful rainfall to some areas, though others are likely to get missed with clusters of storms moving through. Drought coverage is still scattered and could ebb and flow with the scattered nature of the upcoming rainfall.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front produced heavy, flooding rain in parts of Nebraska on Wednesday where a stripe in the middle of the state saw two months-worth of rainfall. The front is moving south where showers will be less heavy through the weekend. Another front will go sweeping through the region this weekend into early next week and could stall near the Red River, providing for more showers for areas that don't need it and are trying to harvest wheat. Areas of scattered showers are likely to continue across much of the region for a while yet, which will keep temperatures from becoming too extreme. That should help developing corn and soybeans, but could be burdensome for wheat harvest.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front that brought areas of heavy rain in the northwest over the last few days is on the move, getting into southern areas for Friday and Saturday. That should help to ease temperatures several degrees. Another front will sweep through the region Sunday and Monday, likely with widespread showers. Southern areas have had a chance to dry out a bit but will now see rain again. More rain in the short-term forecast could be unwanted by some, though others that did get to dry out may enjoy some rainfall coming through. Additional rainfall is likely later next week and weekend with a couple of systems moving through.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Flow coming north from the Gulf has been and will continue to produce isolated showers through the weekend. While most areas have seen drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential. That is uncertain. Otherwise, drier conditions are starting to take over, allowing overly wet soils to drain.

That could cause some topsoils to get too dry and actually need some rainfall, though.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Another system will move through Friday through the weekend that could produce more widespread precipitation after disturbances ahead of it have been producing limited showers this week. But even with this system, showers are coming via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful. More systems are slated to move through later next week and weekend and at least continue chances for rain. But in the absence of showers, temperatures are likely to increase next week and could be stressful, especially west.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air that moved in behind a front produced frosts as far north as Sao Paulo earlier this week, which may have damaged specialty crops in the area. Corn that saw frost was mostly mature and not likely damaged by it. Another front has moved into the south and will stay active through the weekend. More cold air will move in behind it for next week, but is not currently forecast to move very far north to have much of an impact as of the current forecast.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Colder temperatures have been producing widespread frosts and freezes which continue for the next week, but have no significant impact on the remaining corn and soybean harvests or winter wheat establishment. Though drier conditions will continue to promote harvest, rainfall is needed for winter wheat establishment. Very little is forecast.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions over the past ten days have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system passed through earlier this week with showers across the north, and another is did so on Thursday. But temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal through most of next week and on some days, be extremely hot. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing. Rain does not look to return until later next week and may not be very widespread either.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of isolated showers have been moving through over the last couple of weeks and continue through the weekend before going on another dry stretch. The rain is helping some lucky areas that get hit while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further into maturity and harvest begins, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. Drier conditions are likely for a while, with only limited showers moving through at times over the next two weeks. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China is still in need of rainfall while other areas of the country are doing fine for soil moisture. A system moved through there on Thursday with scattered showers on the North China Plain. The forecast is calling for multiple systems to bring frequent showers this weekend through next week which would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near to above.

Forecast: Isolated showers far south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Isolated showers far south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal south and above normal north Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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