DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Plains and another in Alaska. The heat ridge is weakening as the Plains trough moves into it over the next couple of days. Part of the Alaskan trough will move into western Canada Friday and Saturday and then eastward early next week, deepening over the East.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge will develop behind the trough in the West, flipping the pattern for at least a few days next week. Later next week and beyond, models are unsure whether or not to keep the pattern going, or flatten it out a bit. Both seem plausible.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar over the next 10 days or so. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will push through most of the country early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front may stall in the southern U.S. again where we will have to watch for potential heavy rainfall. Temperatures behind the front should be much milder, though heat could build across the Northern Plains later next week. Another system will move more like a clipper from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic later next week and weekend, likely with some areas of heavy rainfall through the Corn Belt.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...113 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...22 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...DES MOINES, IA 1.70 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Plains and another in Alaska. The heat ridge is weakening as the Plains trough moves into it over the next couple of days. Part of the Alaskan trough will move into western Canada Friday and Saturday and then eastward early next week, deepening over the East.

A ridge will develop behind it in the West, flipping the pattern for at least a few days.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will push through most of the country early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front may stall in the southern U.S. again where we will have to watch for potential heavy rainfall. Temperatures behind the front should be much milder, though heat could build across the Northern Plains later next week. Another system will move more like a clipper from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic later next week and weekend, likely with some areas of heavy rainfall through the Corn Belt.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving through this week, hitting some areas with needed rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front has produced some areas of heavy rain across northern areas this week. That front will shift down into the Southern Plains for Thursday and Friday after these areas have gotten a chance to dry out a bit. Another front will go sweeping through the region this weekend into early next week with more showers and we could see it stall across Texas or Oklahoma for a few days as well.

Rainfall continues to be largely favorable for corn, soybeans, and other spring-sewn crops, but is having a negative impact on some wheat areas that are in the midst of harvest that has been delayed.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front continues to bring areas of heavy rainfall to northern areas on Thursday, before getting pushed southward by a system moving along it for Friday and Saturday. That should help to ease temperatures several degrees. And then another front will sweep through the region Sunday and Monday, likely with widespread showers.

Southern areas have seen some spotty showers, but many areas have had a chance to dry out a bit. The combination of heat and soil moisture should improve growth for many in the region. More rain in the short-term forecast could be unwanted by some, though others that did get to dry out may enjoy some rainfall coming through.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Flow coming north from the Gulf has been and will continue to produce isolated showers through the weekend. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Another system will move through Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation after disturbances ahead of it have been producing limited showers. But even with these systems, showers are coming via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful.

Temperatures were cold this weekend behind the system and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta, which continued on Monday and Tuesday mornings as well. Some limited damage may have occurred. More systems are slated to move through later next week and weekend and at least continue chances for rain.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air that moved in behind a front produced frosts as far north as Sao Paulo earlier this week, which may have damaged specialty crops in the area. Corn that saw frost was mostly mature and not likely damaged by it. Another front has moved into the south and will stay active through the weekend. More cold air will move in behind it for next week, but is not currently forecast to move very far north to have much of an impact as of the current forecast.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Colder temperatures have been producing widespread frosts and freezes which continue for at least the next week, but have no significant impact on the remaining corn and soybean harvests or winter wheat establishment. Though drier conditions will continue to promote harvest, rainfall is needed for winter wheat establishment. Very little is forecast.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions over the past week have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system passed through earlier this week with showers across the north, and another is doing so for Thursday. But temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal through most of next week and on some days, be extremely hot. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing. Rain does not look to return until later next week and may not be very widespread either.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of isolated showers have been moving through over the last couple of weeks and continue through the weekend before going on another dry stretch. The rain is helping some lucky areas that get hit while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. Drier conditions are likely for a while, with only limited showers moving through at times over the next two weeks. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China is still in need of rainfall while other areas of the country are doing fine for soil moisture. A system is moving through there Thursday with scattered showers on the North China Plain, which will slow the wheat and canola harvest some, but would be beneficial for corn and soybean development. The forecast has turned more active with systems becoming more frequent this weekend through next week which would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers far south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers far south Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal south and above normal north Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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