USDA Reports Preview

Battered market bulls will look for any bullish straw to grasp onto at 11 a.m. CDT on Monday, June 30, when USDA updates its estimates for row-crop acreage as well as grain stocks available as of June 1.

CORN

Ahead of the Prospective Plantings report at the end of March, the consensus among traders and analysts was clear: Expect higher corn acreage in 2025. USDA proved those suspicions correct, publishing a 95.3-million-acre (ma) estimate, which was even larger than most expected. This time around, for the revision, opinions appear much more split.

According to the Dow Jones pre-survey of 17 analysts, the average estimate is calling for 95.2 ma, slightly less than in March. However, there are some outliers to the low side, pulling that average down. In fact, 10 of the analysts surveyed are calling for higher acreage, with an average estimate of 95.7 ma, while the seven analysts who guessed lower did so at an average of 94.7 ma. As mentioned, it's an impressively even split going into Monday's report. Personally, I am erring to the side of slightly higher acreage to be published on Monday for corn. The planting season went off without a hitch in many key growing areas, trending above the 5-year average pace for most of the season. The argument could be made that soybean price resiliency relative to corn over the spring months may have influenced a switch in some overly wet Eastern states. But I don't see it offsetting the switch from cotton to corn that is anticipated in the Southern U.S.

As for the quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA will report a much-needed inventory analysis for the old-crop corn market, which has grown increasingly bearish over recent months. Outside of May figures, which are still being finalized, we have a good grasp on third-quarter corn usage, which I estimated to have totaled 3.6 billion bushels (bb). If that is accurate, and assuming March 1 stocks were accurately estimated at 8.15 bb, then June 1 stocks should come in near 4.55 bb. The average trade guess from the Dow Jones survey is calling for 4.65 bb of stocks as of June 1, so very much in line with my analysis. The potentially bearish implication for the remainder of the 2024-25 crop year, however, is that over the past five years, final ending stocks have averaged 33.7% of the June 1 total, which is typically lower in high-demand/low-stocks years. For example, assume this year's fourth-quarter demand lowers final ending stocks to 30% of the June 1 total, which would be comparable to what occurred in the 2020-21 record export year. That would still equal closer to 1.4 bb of carryout in 2024-25, above what USDA is currently estimating. Anything is certainly still possible, but I remain cautious that we may see a surprising residual usage adjustment by the close of the summer.

SOYBEANS

In similar fashion to corn, the March intentions estimate of 83.5 ma of soybeans in 2025 was more or less in line with expectations. But, once again, pre-report guesses are strongly mixed for what USDA will have to say on Monday regarding soybean acreage. Of the 17 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones, nine see acreage rising on Monday. The average guess among those analysts is calling for 84 ma of soybeans, a half-million increase from March, if accurate. Of the eight who are guessing lower, it is to a lesser degree, with the average prediction being 83.25 ma. Personally, I see acreage holding very steady if not increasing just slightly due to the price shifting in favor of soybeans over the planting season. Also, in areas where there were corn delays entering June, perhaps we saw minimal acres shift to soybeans for insurance reasons.

For the June 1 stocks estimate, I am estimating third-quarter usage for soybeans totaled 945 million bushels (mb). Of this number, I am very confident in the crush component at 614 mb based on USDA data for March and April, and NOPA data for May. Exports of 258 mb are based on Census Bureau data for March and April, and an estimate for May based on weekly USDA data. The hardest component to estimate is seed and/or residual usage, which I estimated to be in line with the previous two years at 73 mb. This demand would imply a June 1 stocks figure of 965 mb, slightly more bullish than the average trade estimate, according to Dow Jones, which is 971 mb. This would be very close to last year's June 1 stocks of 970 mb, which ultimately is in line with the USDA estimate calling for 350 mb of ending stocks in 2024-25 versus 342 mb in 2023-24.

WHEAT

Wheat acreage on Monday should hold the fewest surprises, as it will essentially be the third revision from USDA, which began with the Seedings report in January. The average trade guess for total wheat acreage is 45.4 mb, even with the March estimate, with estimates ranging from 45 mb to 46 mb. If accurate, this stands as the second-smallest wheat acreage total in the U.S. since 1919. Despite the lower acreage, wheat production is expected to run close to 2024 levels with a strong winter wheat crop expected.

Monday's stocks report for wheat will also serve as the ending stocks estimate for the 2024-25 wheat crop year, which ended on May 31. The average estimate in the Dow Jones survey is 835 mb of wheat on hand as of June 1. This would be a slight decline from the June WASDE ending stocks estimate of 841 mb. Implied fourth-quarter disappearance for wheat would total 402 mb (with imports accounted for in beginning supplies), the largest in four years, if true. Monday's stock information will also offer insight into how the 2024-25 wheat export program ended the season following the Foreign Agricultural Service estimating shipments at just 776 mb versus the USDA estimate for 820 mb. Using March and April Census Bureau data and May data from FAS, I've estimated 2024-25 exports to have totaled 815 mb, much closer to USDA than data at the end of May implied.

**

Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Monday, June 30, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Monday's June Acreage and Stocks report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)
	6/1/25	Avg	High	Low	3/1/25	6/1/24
Corn		4,648	4,955	4,459	8,151	4,997
Soybeans		971	1,020	936	1,910	970
Wheat		835	852	805	1,237	696
ACREAGE REPORT
Planted Acres (million acres)						USDA
	6/30/25	Avg	High	Low	3/31/25	2024
Corn		95.2	96.0	93.8	95.3	90.6
Soybeans		83.6	85.0	83.0	83.5	87.1
All Wheat		45.4	46.0	45.0	45.4	46.1
Winter		33.3	33.4	33.0	33.3	33.4
Spring		10.1	10.2	9.8	10.0	10.6
Durum		2.0	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.1

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

Follow Rhett Montgomery on X: @R_D_Montgomery

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.