Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Dryness in the southwestern Plains, wet and stormy weather through the Corn Belt, and patches of dryness in Europe, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MORE HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER FOR MIDWEST

A system is bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms through the Midwest that continues through Thursday. And another system may bring showers to western and southern parts of the region Friday into the weekend as well. The rainfall should be good for crop growth for much of the region, though some that still have planting to do could be delayed. Cold temperatures will spread through the remainder of the region over the next day or two, being in place into a good portion of next week. Frost is not a very likely concern but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas. Temperatures will rise going into June.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers and thunderstorms finally gave Nebraska some much-needed rainfall over the last couple of days and parts of western Kansas got some needed showers as well. The system leaves on Tuesday, but disturbances could bring additional showers to the Central and Southern Plains for the rest of the week. Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with more widespread showers. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week though, which should keep stress down for those areas.

COLDER WITH BOUTS OF RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A system continues to produce areas of heavy rain across the Northern Plains into Wednesday. It may be cold enough for snow to mix in over North Dakota Tuesday night, though accumulations are unlikely. The rainfall will continue to ease drought conditions in the region and be helpful for early growth. Additional rain will move through Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend but go on a warming trend next week.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE WET

A front is bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the Delta on Tuesday and some additional showers may follow behind Wednesday night into Thursday. Yet another system is forecast to bring showers in over the weekend into early next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are trending much cooler, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system continues to bring scattered showers to Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba through Wednesday while additional showers will be possible in Alberta through Friday. Recent rainfall has been beneficial after a wide open planting window has helped to get many producers off to a fast pace. Another such window is opening for the end of the month, which should also allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures are limiting germination and early growth, with some patchy frost that has been very limited this week and overall, not a concern. Otherwise, conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

FRONT IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL PRODUCING SHOWERS

A front will bounce around southern Brazil throughout the week, offering some potential rainfall. That is coming mostly for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state that would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers may make it into Parana and help filling corn in some limited fashion. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture.

NORTHERN EUROPE STILL TOO DRY, BUT SHOWERS ON THE WAY

A system will continue to move across the Mediterranean with scattered showers this week and we could see more systems moving through northern Europe later this week, weekend, and into next week as well. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany, and the UK, but multiple chances are starting to show up to bring needed precipitation. They need to hurry for winter crops though, which are getting into reproductive stages of growth.

MORE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Streaks of scattered showers continue through at least Wednesday in the Black Sea region while additional showers will likely occur for western areas into the weekend. A wetter pattern over the last couple of weeks has been beneficial, but rainfall deficits are still very large in many areas. Though western areas may continue to see showers next week, the pattern is starting to turn a little drier, especially for southwestern Russia, which may impact reproductive to filling winter wheat and emerging corn.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Some showers developed across the east coast of Australia over the weekend, but the majority of the wheat belt was dry. That largely continues this week as well though some showers may sneak into the west on Thursday, and the east for Thursday and Friday into the weekend. Large-scale dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country's wheat belt, however, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through to end the month but are forecast to produce limited precipitation. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold, which has likely slowed planting progress. Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated for the rest of the month.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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