DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge on the East Coast with a trough in the Central. There is another ridge in the West with a trough out in the Pacific. The western ridge will move east into the Central over the weekend and largely get stuck there through next week. The Central trough will get cutoff from the jet stream and meander across the East this weekend through the middle of next week. A similar situation will occur with the Pacific trough, which will move into the Southwest this weekend and get cutoff, slowly moving east next week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The cutoff low will be slow to move across southern areas next week and may get stuck in the Southeast into the following week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

An upper-level low will continue to produce showers across the south next week, making for some areas of heavy rain. Temperatures will be below normal where that low tracks. Northern areas should be much warmer and drier during the late week and weekend period, though we could see some showers near the Canadian border next weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...10 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...MADISON, WI 1.80 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge on the East Coast with a trough in the Central. There is another ridge in the West with a trough out in the Pacific. The western ridge will move east into the Central over the weekend and largely get stuck there through next week. The Central trough will get cutoff from the jet stream and meander across the East this weekend through the middle of next week. A similar situation will occur with the Pacific trough, which will move into the Southwest this weekend and get cutoff, slowly moving east next week and weekend. It may get stuck near the Gulf Coast into the following week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

An upper-level low will continue to produce showers across the south next week, making for some areas of heavy rain. Temperatures will be below normal where that low tracks. Northern areas should be much warmer and drier during the late week and weekend period, though we could see some showers near the Canadian border next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and heavy rain fell across a good portion of the region earlier this week. Additional light and spotty showers have followed the heavy rain this week. Another system will move into the region on Sunday, likely bringing more scattered showers into Tuesday. Drought has been reduced from the recent rainfall and soil moisture has improved as planters start rolling through the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain has been falling across the south this week due to multiple features, which has improved drought where it existed, but also caused areas of flooding and severe weather. More rain and severe weather continue across the south on Friday. A slow-moving system will move into the Plains with showers starting on Monday and continue periods of showers for most of next week. That should improve the drought situation in some areas, but cause more flooding. Most of Kansas and Nebraska will welcome any rain that falls, though Nebraska may not see all that much despite the several days of chances.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Multiple features have combined to create widespread showers across the region this week, causing some severe weather and overly wet soils that may limit planting in some areas. An upper-level low will get cut off in the region and stick around through the middle of next week, producing areas of showers for those east of the Mississippi River. Another upper-level low will move across southern areas with showers next week and could bring some showers up into the region as well. That is not likely to have much of an impact, however, and overall drier conditions should favor planting and other fieldwork, especially for those in the northwest.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front remains stalled in the region with periods of showers through Saturday, causing some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions in the region. A slow-moving low-pressure system will move into the region in the middle of next week with more unnecessary rainfall that could be heavy at times.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front continues with showers over northern areas into the weekend, but the country is drying out. This should be considered the end of the wet season, generally on time this year. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for pollinating to filling corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in over the next couple of weeks. Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Overall drier conditions have been favorable for corn and soybean harvest lately. Some showers will develop over northern areas on Friday, but conditions continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in over the next couple of weeks, but fronts moving through next week should provide some better moisture.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Much of this week has been dry, but western areas are seeing a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas on Friday, combining for widespread precipitation for the weekend.

Eastern areas should see rainfall continuing next week as well, which may help to moisten up some drier areas in the northeast. Another upper-level low may continue showers across the southwest next week as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Temperatures continue to waffle a bit, but drier conditions this week have not been favorable for winter wheat. A front will move into the region this weekend into early next week and several pulses of storm systems will move along it, bringing some showers, but could be streaky.

Southwestern Russia is least likely to see good rainfall from the pattern. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas around the country are still dry and in need of some rain, though portions of the west and New South Wales have gotten some rain recently. Showers continue to be limited for the first half of May, an overall unfavorable pattern for winter crop establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Primary wheat and canola areas in central China have been drier this spring, unfavorable as those crops quickly develop in warmer temperatures. Very little precipitation is forecast either there or farther north in the corn and soybean areas, which is not good for crops in the ground, but better for spring planting. The longer range forecast continues to call for limited showers through the first half of May for the North China Plain and Northeast, even with periodic showers.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Friday, south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, above normal north and below normal south Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers far north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

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