DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in Canada and another in the Southwest. There is another ridge off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will pull the Southwestern trough eastward through this weekend. The far western ridge will move into the West over the next couple of days and sort of settle across middle of the continent this weekend into next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will follow the ridge into the West this weekend, but probably cut underneath the ridge across the South next week, albeit very slowly.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about the details with each system moving through, especially with how to treat next week's low. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A system will move into the Plains on Sunday and very slowly move eastward through the U.S. next week with some degree of showers. Above-normal temperatures will be favored across the North with more seasonable temperatures across the South.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...107 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...11 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...ST. THOMAS, VI 2.03 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in Canada and another in the Southwest. There is another ridge off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will pull the Southwestern trough eastward through this weekend. The far western ridge will move into the West over the next couple of days and sort of settle across middle of the continent this weekend into next week. Another trough will follow it into the West, but probably cut underneath the ridge across the South next week, albeit very slowly.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about the details with each system moving through, especially with how to treat next week's low. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A system will move into the Plains on Sunday and very slowly move eastward through the U.S. next week with some degree of showers. Above-normal temperatures will be favored across the North with more seasonable temperatures across the South.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and heavy rain fell across a good portion of the region earlier this week. Additional light and spotty showers are forecast for the next couple of days. Another system will move into the region this weekend, likely bringing more scattered showers into next week. The current and forecast rainfall should improve drought, but also cause wet conditions and some delays to planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is stalled across the south, where showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday and some additional showers may be possible on Friday with another front sweeping it out. More rainfall is forecast with another system moving into the region on Sunday with a system that will be slowly moving eastward next week. The rainfall is helping to ease drought conditions and build soil moisture, but may be causing some flooding and delays to planting. Producers likely welcome the rain, even if it causes some delays.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought heavy rain and severe weather over the last two days. Another system will move up through the region from the Southern Plains over the next couple of days, producing more widespread rainfall, especially for the wetter south. Some additional showers will be possible next week as an upper-level trough slowly moves eastward through the region. Western areas are likely to be wetter, and eastern areas may get a chance to dry out and get some fieldwork in.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front will move into the region on Tuesday and linger with periods of showers through Saturday, causing some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions in the region.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front recently moved through the country, continuing showers over northern areas into the weekend. This should be considered the end of the wet season, generally on time this year. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May. Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Overall drier conditions have been favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Very little rainfall is forecast this week, with some showers over northern areas on Friday, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May but fronts moving through next week could provide some better moisture.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Much of this week has been dry, but western areas will see a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas on Friday, combining for widespread precipitation for the weekend. Eastern areas may see rainfall continuing next week as well, which could help to moisten up some drier areas in the northeast.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Temperatures continue to waffle a bit this week, but drier conditions are not going to be very favorable. A front will move through this weekend into early next week that may bring more widespread showers, but models have been backing off on that potential recently, especially for southwestern Russia. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas around the country are still dry and in need of some rain, though portions of the west and New South Wales have gotten some rain recently. Showers continue to be limited across the country this week, favoring western and eastern coastal areas through the weekend. More inland areas will need the rain, but early May appears to be pretty dry.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Primary wheat and canola areas in central China have been drier this spring, unfavorable as those crops quickly develop in warmer temperatures. Very little precipitation is forecast either there or farther north in the corn and soybean areas, which is not good for crops in the ground, but better for spring planting. The longer range forecast continues to call for limited showers through the first half of May.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers west Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, below normal south and near to above normal north Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

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