Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued areas of heavy rain and severe weather across the Central U.S. causing potential planting delays for corn and soybeans, but soil moisture improvements for wheat, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Blacks Sea, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system brought heavy rain and some severe weather to the western Midwest on Monday. The front to the system will continue with showers through parts of the region through Friday, especially across the wetter south. Some additional showers will be possible next week as an upper-level trough slowly moves eastward through the region. Western areas are likely to be wetter than eastern areas, which may get a chance to dry out and get some fieldwork in.

DAILY RAIN IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is stalled across the Southern Plains, where showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday and some additional showers may be possible on Friday with another front sweeping it out. More rainfall is forecast with another system moving into the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend with a system that will be slowly moving eastward next week. The rainfall is helping to ease drought conditions and build soil moisture, but may be causing some flooding and delays to planting. Producers likely welcome the rain, even if it causes some delays.

DROUGHT-REDUCING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers and heavy rain fell across a good portion of the Northern Plains over the last couple of days. Additional light and spotty showers are forecast for the next couple of days. Another system will move into the region this weekend, likely bringing more scattered showers into next week. The current and forecast rainfall should improve drought, but also cause wet conditions and some delays to planting.

MORE RAIN FOR THE DELTA

The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front will move into the Delta on Tuesday and linger with periods of showers through Friday, causing some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions in the region.

FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR FILLING CORN IN BRAZIL

A front brought scattered showers to southern Brazil over the weekend, maintaining soil moisture for corn that is going from pollination into grain fill. The front will move north and out of the primary growing areas by Wednesday, but continue rainfall for northern areas into the weekend. This should be considered the end of the wet season, generally on time this year. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May. Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

LIMITED RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Limited showers went through some southern areas of Argentina over the weekend, but should not have disrupted the continued corn and soybean harvest. Very little rainfall is forecast this week, with some showers over northern areas on Friday, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May but fronts moving through next week could provide some better moisture.

DRIER IN EUROPE, BUT MORE RAIN COMING

Much of the week is dry in Europe, but western areas will see a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas late this week. Eastern areas may see rainfall continuing next week as well, which could help to moisten up some drier areas in the northeast.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A front moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend with some limited showers and colder temperatures. Temperatures will waffle a bit this week, but drier conditions are not going to be very favorable. A front will move through this weekend into early next week that may bring more widespread showers. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through New South Wales over the weekend, which was needed for some drier spots where winter wheat and canola are being planted. But many areas around the country are still dry and in need of some rain. Showers will be limited across the country this week, favoring western and eastern coastal areas later this week and weekend. More inland areas will need the rain, but early May appears to be pretty dry.

CENTRAL CHINA REMAINING DRY

Primary wheat and canola areas in central China have been drier this spring, unfavorable as those crops quickly develop in warmer temperatures. Very little precipitation is forecast either there or farther north in the corn and soybean areas, which is not good for crops in the ground, but better for spring planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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