DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Central and another in the Northwest. These features and additional troughs and ridges will move through the country rather easily for the rest of the month.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The busier pattern will continue into early May with no stagnant features and multiple troughs and ridges moving through the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move into the Plains over the weekend and push east early next week. There is some potential for the southern end of the front to get stuck in the Plains, which would likely form another system that moves northeast through the country around the middle of next week. Temperatures are likely to rise ahead of systems and fall behind them, but with generally near or above normal temperatures through next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...93 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...9 AT WESTCLIFFE CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...ABILENE, TX 3.26 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Central and another in the Northwest. The pattern will be rather progressive going into early May with troughs and ridges easily moving through North America. This is a generally busy pattern for the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern, though they disagree about some of the details with each system moving through.

I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move into the Plains over the weekend and push east early next week. There is some potential for the southern end of the front to get stuck in the Plains, which would likely form another system that moves northeast through the country around the middle of next week. Temperatures are likely to rise ahead of systems and fall behind them, but with generally near or above normal temperatures through next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some limited showers moved through over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A system will move through on Monday with scattered showers and another should move through later in the week. The rainfall amounts will not be enough to ease drought, but will maintain overall decent topsoil moisture for most of the region. Some cooler temperatures will be in place most of the week, but nothing overly cold. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren't so chilly or wet.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front made for training thunderstorms from central Texas into Missouri, where heavy rainfall and severe storms occurred over the weekend. Limited areas of the southwestern Plains received precipitation, but other areas stayed unfavorably dry. That would be concerning, but multiple fronts and systems are forecast to move through the region going into early May, which may bring some of these drier areas some needed rainfall. If they get missed too often, winter wheat conditions will continue to fall. The multiple rounds may also limit spring planting in some areas as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front and system moving through have brought more rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the region, including some heavy rain across Missouri and into parts of Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin as well. Light to moderate rain has fallen elsewhere, building soil moisture but limiting opportunities for planting. Some southern areas are still too wet as well. Multiple systems and fronts will move through the region to close out April and start May in a busy overall pattern.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front moved into the region Sunday night with scattered showers. The front will get stuck in the region for most of the week, bringing periods of showers through at least Friday. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week will not be helpful either. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region. The rainfall this week will not be helpful, though water levels are forecast to drop later this week.

BRAZIL (CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. Showers should be limited early this week, but should pick up in intensity and coverage as a front goes by late week. Another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn pollinates and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Limited showers went through southern areas over the weekend, but most areas have stayed dry. Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last week and continue this week as well. That has favored winter wheat development, but also produced some delays to planting.

However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain. Rainfall this week will largely miss those drier areas in the northeast and the pattern should be quieter and milder next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It was dry over the weekend with above-normal temperatures speeding along winter wheat development. The conditions have been good for planting, but not for plant growth. Limited showers will move through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it's still poor weather conditions for growth.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Limited showers went through southeastern Australia over the weekend, but many areas there are still very dry and need more rain. The same goes for much of the northeast, which has been much drier over the last couple of weeks. A couple of disturbances could bring through some areas of showers, but more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

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