Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several storms moving through the U.S., but not much precipitation for hard red winter wheat, increased rain in South America, and little rainfall for the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST

Precipitation from earlier this week is favorable for drought areas in the Midwest, but some areas of heavy rain have soaked soils ahead of fieldwork and planting for those in the east. Several systems will move through this weekend into next week with some additional showers and occasional areas of heavier rain or snow.

WARM AND DRY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Snow that moved through the Central Plains earlier this week should help with the ongoing drought across the north, but the Southern Plains are seeing drought building from a lack of precipitation and strong winds. A couple of smaller systems with very limited precipitation are forecast into early next week, but will produce very little for the region. Southwestern wheat areas are not forecast to see much of any precipitation until maybe next weekend. With the limited precipitation and occasional bursts of strong winds and warmth, conditions for greening winter wheat are not currently favorable.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PLAINS, DROUGHT CONTINUES

A couple of smaller systems will move through the Northern Plains into next week, but with limited showers. Drought continues to be a big concern for the region heading into spring and the active weather pattern has yet to bring through the large precipitation events that are needed to reduce it.

WET SOILS IN THE DELTA GETTING MORE RAIN THIS WEEKEND

Water levels on the Mississippi River are rising again, though flooding is not expected as the rivers to the east are falling again. Soils are likely too wet to work for many areas this week, though. A system will move through on Sunday into early Monday with another round of heavy thunderstorms and potential for severe weather. Some smaller systems could bring additional rainfall next week to keep soil moisture high.

FRONT STALLED IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A stalled front across central Brazil will remain somewhat stationary, producing rainfall into next week. While some heavier rain is forecast to fall, models have been over-predicting rainfall recently. Despite this, some needed rain looks to fall in some very dry areas in the east-central safrinha corn areas. West-central areas continue to see beneficial rainfall, but the south is now drier. A system coming up from Argentina may produce more widespread showers this weekend and through next week, however.

HEAVY RAIN FOR ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Dry conditions have been in place for most of Argentina over the last two weeks, though a front will move through this weekend into next week with a few rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms and some areas of heavy rain. Filling corn and soybeans have had some drier conditions recently and need more rain, so this should be somewhat beneficial. It could delay the ongoing harvest, though.

ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD FOR EUROPE

Spain has been seeing beneficial rainfall this week, but most of Europe has been dry. However, another system is moving into the west on Friday and is forecast to send several pieces of energy through the continent over the weekend and next week with beneficial widespread rainfall. Above-normal temperatures should coax more wheat across the north out of dormancy while causing more rapid growth across the south.

STREAKS OF PRECIPITATION NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in the Black Sea region. An active pattern in Europe will bring some rain through the region starting this weekend and continue through next week, but only in patchy locations that should target the northwest more than any other spots.

SOME SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest in eastern Australia, hoping for drier weather. However, winter wheat and canola planting will begin in about a month and will need more precipitation to build soil moisture. A front is moving through with scattered showers across the east Thursday into Friday. Models have been more generous with rainfall continuing into northeastern areas over the weekend and into next week, which may delay harvest but build soil moisture.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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