DTN Early Word Livestock Comments

Cattle: Higher Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $239.52 +$2.99*

Hogs: Lower Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $101.00 -$0.45**

*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures are a sight to behold as new record prices continue to be made. All live cattle contracts closed above $200 on Wednesday as traders anticipate higher cash again this week. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $6.29 and select down $0.55. The strength of boxed beef has been incredible, indicating demand remains strong even at these lofty levels. Feedlots are expected to hold for higher cash this week. Packers may be short-bought as they did not purchase very many for deferred delivery last week. Traders may begin positioning themselves for the Cattle on Feed report to be released Friday. The estimates are for on-feed as of March 1 at 98.2% of a year ago; placements in February at 85.6%; cattle marketed in February at 91.8%.

Hog futures showed another day of weakness Wednesday as traders are not sure whether demand will improve as much as anticipated. It seems consumers prefer beef and high prices have not increased demand for pork. Pork cutouts declined by $0.45 on Wednesday. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed strong packer interest with an increase of $2.74 on a large amount of hog purchased. The packers likely have most of the hogs purchased for the week with cash expected to be lower Thursday. Hog slaughter was lighter on Wednesday due to some plants being closed because of weather. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 140,000 but may increase as packers make up for what was lost on Wednesday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	All live cattle contracts closed above $200 Wednesday with consistent new highs fueling increased buying interest from traders.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report may trigger some profit-taking as traders sell some of their long positions just in case the report is negative.
2)	Feedlots will hold for higher cash. The continued support from futures and boxed beef will provide the confidence to hold out.	2)	Cattle futures are overbought and may run out of continued buying interest at these lofty price levels.
3)	Hog futures are not trending higher but have developed a wide, sideways trading range. Prices may be building support.	3)	The weekly hog weights increased by 0.2 pounds to an average of 289.8 pounds. This is 2.7 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	Chart gaps remain quite a bit higher. Gaps are generally filled at some point. The April contract may run out of time but later contracts may close the gaps.	4)	Pork cutouts have yet to find consistent support. This will continue to limit the upside price potential.

For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.

**

Farmers face a rapidly changing political environment as they gear up for spring planting. The news around tariff negotiations, budget cutting efforts and potential tax reform may keep the markets guessing, but our experts will help farmers put the news into perspective. Join us March 7, 2025, for DTN's next Ag Summit Series: "Spring Forward: Ag Policy, Weather Trends and Market Insights" by registering at https://dtn.link/….

**

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com

**

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.