Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big spring storm system for the U.S., mixed conditions in South America, and warmth and dryness in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

BOMB CYCLONE BRINGING SEVERE STORMS, BLIZZARD TO MIDWEST

Drought continues to have a grip on much of the Midwest. But a massive storm system will move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, northwestern snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions where the snow falls. Additional systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which will probably include a band of heavy snow during the middle of next week. The forecast precipitation may help with the drought situation in some areas.

INCREDIBLY STRONG WINDS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Drought still covers a large portion of the Central and Southern Plains, and some areas are getting worse. A massive storm system is moving into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation. However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts while this region will see strong winds and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages. There is a better chance for precipitation in needed areas in the middle of next week, though it is unlikely to hit all areas.

RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, BLIZZARD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system that moves through the Northern Plains on Friday and Saturday will bring scattered showers, including heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the far eastern Dakotas. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture, but only limited areas are going to see that. Much more is needed. A couple of rounds of showers are forecast for next week, but with limited impact. Southeastern areas will get a shot at heavier precipitation from another big storm in the middle of next week.

SEVERE WEATHER MOVING THROUGH DELTA REGION

Water levels continue to fall along the Mississippi and most of the tributaries and some areas are drying out enough for early planting in the Delta. A massive storm system moving through the country is likely to produce lines and clusters of thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday, which may be significantly severe. Another system in the middle of next week could also add water to the region. If areas get enough rain, it could slow down early planting intentions

FRONT STALLED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front stalled across south-central Brazil will only drift slightly northward over the next couple days. Scattered showers that are occurring are much-needed, but east-central Brazil is not forecast to see much rainfall for the next week and safrinha corn is suffering in hot and dry conditions there. The southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is a big producer of full-season corn and soybeans, is filling its crops with poor conditions. West-central states continue to see scattered wet-season showers and overall fair conditions.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA

Overall dry conditions are expected for the next week in Argentina, though a few spots will see showers across the south. Temperatures are milder the next couple of days, but could be stressful next week for areas that have been drier, particularly across the north. Southern and central areas can handle some drier conditions after the recent heavy rainfall. Much of the crop is either filling or maturing. Weather is starting to become less of a factor for production as even recent heavy rains have not been able to improve crop conditions.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A series of systems continues to move across the southern end of Europe through this weekend, producing scattered showers. Recent warm temperatures have allowed more of the winter wheat crop to break dormancy, doing so in fairly good condition in most areas. Temperatures rise again next week in overall drier conditions. We will see storms moving back into western areas by late next week, which should hit northwestern areas with some rain that might actually be favorable after a drier stretch of weather recently. Spain should continue to see beneficial rainfall as well.

STREAKS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

An active pattern over Europe is only producing streaks of precipitation across Ukraine and southwestern Russia going into next week and some areas are being unfavorably missed. Very warm temperatures this week have allowed more of the crop to break from dormancy, but in poor condition without much soil moisture. Temperatures rise again later next week but with very little moisture to work with through the end of March.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA STILL RECOVERING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED

Eastern Australia has been recovering this week from Tropical Cyclone Alfred and its flooding rain around Brisbane. Cotton and sorghum areas farther inland saw scattered showers and areas of heavy rainfall earlier this week, and could have seen enough rain to drop quality and push back harvest. Drier conditions going into next week should be more favorable for recovery, maturing crops and harvest.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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