Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain and snow for the southwestern Plains wheat areas, a continued active pattern for the Central U.S. that has led to drought reduction, and overall good weather for now in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE RAIN COMING TO THE MIDWEST

Recent rainfall and several waves of heavy rain have led to drought reduction across the western half of the Midwest. Some flooding has occurred because of heavy rain though, especially in Missouri. After a few days' break, another system will move through this weekend with scattered showers and another system is poised to move through next week with more rain chances. Temperatures continue to be above normal, even behind the systems moving through, allowing the rain to build soil moisture and improve conditions for winter wheat.

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS

An upper-level low in the Southwest is building heavy showers across the southwestern Plains, which includes some heavy snow in Colorado and New Mexico. The low will move northeast through the region on Saturday, with any snow changing to rain. Some areas in the southwest will see some heavy precipitation, helping to reduce drought and improve conditions for winter wheat. Another system will push through around the middle of next week but may or may not produce much precipitation. Those that see snow will see temperatures stay lower while the rest of the region sees above-normal temperatures, even with the systems moving through. The recent rainfall has already led to widespread reduction in drought across the region.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system in the Four Corners will spread some rain for the Dakotas over the weekend. Another front is likely to push through early next week and may bring some showers as well. Though systems are moving through, temperatures are forecast to remain near or even above normal through next week.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS HIGHER FOR NOW

Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. But for the River to have sustained improvements, more precipitation needs to occur in the Ohio Valley. Additional rain will fall with a system moving through this weekend and another system will move through next week. The region does stay active through the month of November, which may help.

WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in Central Brazil, being favorable for the last of the soybean planting and early establishment. Good growing conditions are currently found throughout most of the country. Southern areas are seeing waves of showers from fronts moving up from Argentina, though a front that moves through early next week may have more limited showers and another stretch of drier weather will be possible afterward.

DRIER STRETCH AFTER MORE RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

A front is moving through Argentina on Thursday with scattered showers. Some additional spotty showers may continue before the next system moves in over the weekend and early next week. A stretch of drier weather is likely to return afterward. However, it is not expected to last more than a week and overall favorable conditions continue to be present in most of the country for now. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

DRIER EUROPE GETTING SHOWERS NEXT WEEK

Some showers continue over the Iberian Peninsula and may develop into France over the next few days as well. But the remainder of the continent is likely to be dry through the weekend. The recent dryness is starting to be a problem again in the eastern half where soil moisture deficits are growing. The dryness had been favorable in the northwest, but some areas could use a little rain now, too. A system should dive south through the middle of the continent early next week and bring showers there. Models have showers expanding across most of the continent next week, being heaviest around Italy.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Very limited showers have been moving through Australia lately and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next week, but the forecast is calling for continued spotty rainfall with these systems.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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