Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A break in the heat for the U.S. Corn Belt next week and drier conditions for the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

STORMS WINDING DOWN FOR THE MIDWEST; COOL BURST COMING NEXT WEEK

A front that brought severe weather across the western Midwest on Wednesday continues through the east through Friday, bringing scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms and potential severe weather. Despite the front, temperatures will continue to be hot. Though showers could limit the overall highs, overnight lows will continue to be mostly in the upper 60s and 70s. A cold front will drop into far northern areas this weekend with milder air and will be pushed through the region next week. Showers will occur along this front as well. Despite all the chances for showers, it will come in clusters and some areas are going to be missed. Those that are missed will see declining soil moisture and crop conditions.

STILL HOT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

With a couple of fronts moving through the Central and Southern Plains this week, some showers have been moving through, but coverage has been low. Kansas has fared better than other areas. Isolated showers will be possible through the weekend. Temperatures have been and continue to be hot and stressful, reducing soil moisture and crop health. A front will get pushed into the region next week, bringing a burst of mild air into the region to help reduce the stress. The front may get stuck in the region for most of next week and produce sporadic showers throughout the week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers fell across the Dakotas this week, but western areas of the Northern Plains did not see much precipitation, being unfavorably dry and warm with increasing drought. Another front drops into the region over the weekend and will be pushed through early next week, the front should bring scattered showers through the region. Another may develop for the middle of next week. Temperatures have been warm to hot in some areas but will drop behind the front this weekend with a period of much milder temperatures for next week.

HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

A front moving through the Corn Belt is unlikely to bring showers to much of the Delta through the weekend, though some isolated showers are possible. Instead, temperatures are high and stressful. Soil moisture is currently favorable in much of the region that could help crops sustain themselves through the heat, but soil moisture will be declining. A stronger cold front is forecast to move into the region in the middle of next week, which should bring some relief to the temperatures and potential for some showers.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, COOLER AIR COMING

Despite some fronts moving through the Canadian Prairies this week, showers have been very isolated and light, a trend that continues into the weekend. Temperatures are warmer, though potential for extreme heat is low with the fronts passing through. Soil moisture continues to decline and is becoming critical for wheat and canola in their critical stages of reproduction and fill. Milder air will move in behind a cold front this weekend and another burst of mild air moves across next week. The system that pushes the front south early next week could bring a burst of better rainfall but should also miss some areas.

ARGENTINA MAY BE WETTER NEXT WEEK

Dryness in Argentina continues to be a concern for winter wheat in the short term and for the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Another front moves through Friday into the weekend but forecast rainfall will be patchy and lighter than the country needs. Another system could help out with that in the middle of next week as it is forecast to settle over the country for a few days.

NORTHERN EUROPE TARGETED WITH MORE RAIN

Southeastern Europe continues to deal with heat and dryness concerns for small grains and cotton despite some irregular precipitation over the last few weeks. Spain and Italy have also been unfavorably dry for their summer crop prospects. A small disturbance will continue to move through central Europe very slowly over the next few days, getting some rain into needed areas but it has also brought more rain into France and Germany that do not need it. Several more fronts are lining up to move through this weekend and next week, with the focus for showers occurring mostly in the north. Northeastern areas could use the rain while northwestern areas continue to be unfavorably wet.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT

Very limited showers have moved through the Black Sea region early this week but were light if they occurred at all and coverage has been low. A disturbance moving through Europe will bring some additional showers this weekend into early next week. Rain may occur for some lucky areas but will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures continue to be warm and cause drought and stress.

DRIER IN NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture in much of Queensland has been falling and rain is needed here for vegetative wheat and canola. A disturbance could bring some limited showers early next week. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through next week should bring more.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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