Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the northwestern Corn Belt and hot and largely dry conditions for the southern and eastern U.S., wet weather in parts of northwestern Europe, and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MIDWEST IS WET NORTHWEST, HOT AND LARGELY DRY SOUTH AND EAST

A front in the northwestern Midwest will waffle around that portion of the region all week, where daily showers and thunderstorms will occur. South of the front, temperatures will be excessive and humidity is very high, causing a rapid decrease in soil moisture and stress in areas that are not overly saturated. A general wet and cooler northwest and hotter and drier south and east will continue throughout the week with few exceptions, though pop-up showers will be possible in the heat. Crops would benefit from a small increase in moisture and reduced afternoon heat if they indeed occur. The front will finally get pushed eastward over the weekend and another system moving through during the middle of next week will produce more widespread precipitation and milder temperatures as well.

HOT AND SHOWERY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will waffle around the Central Plains through Saturday before it finally moves east, continuing showers and thunderstorms and severe weather in the north and west for most of the week. Some severe weather is also possible. South of the front, temperatures will continue to be quite warm to hot for mid-June, causing stress and quick reduction in soil moisture where showers do not occur.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front will continue to waffle around the Northern Plains and areas to the south throughout the week, producing daily occurrences of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Some areas of flooding, breezy winds, and severe weather are forecast. Temperatures will be cooler through midweek as well. Another system moves through with scattered showers early next week.

HOT WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Hot temperatures will be in place across the Delta all week long, but moisture coming north from the Gulf of Mexico may produce some showers at times and reduce the impact of the heat. A front moves through early next week with some showers and another moves through a day or two later with some more potential beneficial showers as well.

COOL AND SHOWERY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system that moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend brought in cooler temperatures that will stick around through midweek before starting to rise. If skies can clear and winds calm down, there may be some patchy frost through Wednesday morning. Periods of showers will continue to move across the region all this week and into next week as well, keeping soil moisture high, though too high in some areas, especially in the east.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil this weekend with heavy rain, which may have resulted in additional flooding in areas that are still trying to recover from last month's historic floods. The front will remain stalled in the south all week long with more periods of rain and potential flooding. Winter wheat planting continues to face challenges from wet soils as well. Rain is forecast to largely stay south of the safrinha corn areas this week, with another push of the front slightly into southern areas next week with some showers. Temperatures remain high, forcing corn into maturity quicker. Poor weather conditions over the last two months have meant limited or no rainfall for corn, and cuts to the safrinha crop are more likely as harvest continues to increase.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina late last week and settled just north of the country. Paraguay and southern Brazil will continue to see showers, but heavy rain is not forecast for Argentina. Instead, occasional showers will move through going into next week. Winter wheat planting and establishment could use some more widespread and heavier rainfall after the last couple of months of drier conditions. Only limited areas of the country will see some higher amounts. Cooler temperatures are likely to push through the country over the weekend into early next week, which may result in some frosts, especially for the south.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWESTERN EUROPE

An upper-level low-pressure center brought unfavorable rainfall to northwestern Europe over the weekend and another system will bring more showers to those same areas most of this week as well. France and Germany will be especially wet, unfavorable for maturing wheat and developing corn, where flooding and saturated soils are very common. Adjacent areas across the west and north will welcome the rainfall. Southeastern areas will be unfavorable dry with increasing heat yet again, which should cause stress for developing summer crops.

HEAT AND LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A system brought showers into eastern Ukraine over the weekend and Monday, but very limited showers for southwestern Russia, unfavorable for immature wheat that has been dealing with heat and dryness during the critical stages over the last couple of weeks. A few showers mid-late week with a front passing through will not bring much precipitation to very dry areas in the region. Instead, the lack of rain will cause an increase in temperatures most of this week, causing further stress to developing corn and sunflowers in areas of drought.

FAIR WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A couple of fronts will move through Australia this week and weekend with chances for scattered showers, though some areas will get missed. Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the country, though eastern areas could use some more rain. The change to La Nina, though slower than expected, should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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