Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air building in Canada with an eye on the U.S., a major storm over the weekend into next week, and mixed weather conditions in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO MIDWEST, BIG STORM THIS WEEKEND

Lake-effect snow will continue Wednesday as colder air settles into the Midwest. The cold sets up another clipper to move through Thursday and Friday with a burst of snow across the north and rain for the south. But the big story will be a major spring storm system that will have multiple effects this weekend through the middle of next week including heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds, and severe storm potential as it comes through in two pieces. Smaller systems may follow behind the main system later next week.

DOUBLE-BARRELED STORM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

An upper-level low will bring scattered showers through the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday. The pattern gets very active afterward, with a double-barreled system moving through this weekend and early next week that at least has a chance for meaningful precipitation across the southwestern wheat areas. A burst of Arctic air will likely flow down through the region next week behind that system, which could be damaging for some wheat. A couple of disturbances could follow behind the main system next week, keeping up the chances for meaningful precipitation.

HEAVY SNOW AND COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Another round of cold air that is moving into the Northern Plains will likely last through most of next week. In the colder air, several systems will move through with scattered showers, mostly as snow. Some of these bursts could be heavier, especially with a storm system this weekend that could bring blizzard conditions.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE IN THE DELTA

Recent precipitation has helped to maintain overall good soil moisture in much of the Delta region. Several additional storm systems will move through the region this week and next, which should do the same. If not for some colder temperatures that follow a system next week and some wetter soils, early planting may be starting up.

FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers have been and continue to fall across Brazil Wednesday. A strong front will move through Thursday and settle into central states on Friday, where it will enhance showers well into next week. That should leave some good rain for safrinha corn that has had very little over the last week. It will be drier behind the front across the south, which is not exactly a good thing for immature crops there, but it has been raining recently.

STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A stronger front will move through Argentina on Wednesday and into early Thursday. It may have widespread heavy showers with it, but conditions will dry out behind it through the weekend. A burst of cooler temperatures will reduce stress, though. Disturbances will resume moving through the country later next week, which should keep the overall good conditions going, however.

WHEAT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

An upper-low in Ukraine will move into the Black Sea by the end of the week, keeping some showers going across southwestern Russia into the weekend. A front should move into the region next week with potential for more showers. Wheat conditions are in good shape as the crop continues to green up early. Rainfall has been more limited lately, and more would be preferred.

FRANCE STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

An upper-level low will remain off the coast of Spain this week but bring some limited showers Wednesday and Thursday. A larger system dives down through Europe this weekend with widespread showers and next week looks pretty active as well. In other words, precipitation will be pretty widespread through the end of the month, favorable for winter wheat in most areas, but still too wet in France.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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