DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Southern Plains and a ridge in the Pacific. The ridge will continue in the Pacific, forcing pieces of energy that go around it to dive into the middle of North America for the next couple of weeks. This will cause a somewhat permanent trough over the middle of the continent.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The pattern with a ridge in the Pacific and a trough across the U.S. will continue. Toward the end of the month, a ridge will start to develop in the Southeast, pushing back the troughs to the western half of the continent going into February.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be well below normal in the northwestern half of the country with above-normal temperatures in the southeastern half. A front will set up east-west across the middle of the country and a couple of systems will form along that front, pushing it southward through the country next week and bringing the colder air south and east.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...88 AT HOLLYWOOD, FL, MIAMI, FL, AND WEST KENDALL-TAMIAMI, FL LOW MON...19 BELOW ZERO AT BOULDER, WY

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT MONDAY...CONCORD, NH 1.53 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Southern Plains and a ridge in the Pacific. The ridge will continue in the Pacific, forcing pieces of energy that go around it to dive in to the middle of North America for the next couple of weeks. This will cause a somewhat permanent trough over the middle of the continent. Toward the end of the month, a ridge will start to develop in the Southeast, pushing back the troughs to the western half of the continent going into February.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country.

I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be well below normal in the northwestern half of the country with above normal temperatures in the southeastern half. A front will set up east-west across the middle of the country and a couple of systems will form along that front, pushing it southward through the country next week and bringing the colder air south and east.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): A clipper system will bring a strong cold front through the region on Friday that will bring in arctic air for the end of January and the beginning of February, leading to increased stress for livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A system is producing widespread precipitation across the southern half of the region Tuesday, including a band of moderate to heavy snow across northern Texas, Oklahoma, and southeastern Kansas. This is the best chance for precipitation this region has seen in a long time. A front will move into the region this coming weekend and may provide some additional showers, but temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A stronger system will bring another band of moderate to heavy snow for southeastern areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. A clipper will bring a strong cold front into the region Friday and Saturday that will send temperatures well below normal. The front will be pushed southward a couple of times by additional systems over the weekend and next week. Each will bring precipitation with them and push the colder air deeper through the region.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Recent precipitation has been able to keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River from falling into dangerously low territory. The watershed has been active and will stay active with several rounds of precipitation moving through heading into February, which should keep river levels up for a while yet.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dryness is taking a hold of the southern states yet again until another front moves through this weekend. Models disagree, but could linger that front in the region next week, which would be helpful for filling corn and soybeans. Widespread precipitation elsewhere continues to favor later-planted soybeans, but is delaying harvest a little. If the wetness continues too long, it may push back the safrinha corn planting schedule, which would not be an ideal scenario for the crop.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through over the weekend with scattered showers. A lot of 0.75-1.5" reports were received, but the crop is in deep drought and crop conditions continue to be very poor. Another couple of fronts will move through this week, which may not be as organized as the last front, but are still forecasting similar amounts for the week. Should amounts disappoint, the region would have to wait until the middle of next week for the next chance of rain. If the forecasts hold, stabilization of the corn and soybean crops are likely, but a stark turnaround may not occur.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, especially across the south, where showers will continue for most of the week.

The northern half of the region will be drier this week, but should see some showers move through this weekend into next week. Overall, winter wheat is in a favorable situation, though is vulnerable to a blast of cold air should it come with somewhat limited snow cover.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Light snow east. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Tuesday night-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday night-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures well below normal northwest and above normal southeast Sunday, near to well below normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south overnight. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to well below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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