DTN Ag Weather Brief

Teresa Deutchman
Meteorologist

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a strong ridge in northeast Canada and Greenland, another ridge near Alaska and into the eastern Pacific, and an arm of the polar vortex extending from western Canada into northern areas of the northern plains, northern Rockies, and Pacific Northwest. The polar vortex will dive southeast into the eastern half of the U.S. over the next few days as a ridge builds out in the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will try to develop across the central U.S. early next week before the ridge across the west makes a shift east into the central U.S. by the middle of the week. Behind this ridge, another trough will push into the central U.S. by late next week.

The U.S. and European models have the same pattern through the rest of this week, but are starting to show some disagreements on how a trough evolves across the central U.S. early next week. Consequently, these models still disagree on how much warmer it will get next week as well. I will use a blend, but favor the European, which is generally cooler.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be below to well below normal across the eastern half of the U.S. with above normal temperatures expanding across the west. A clipper will move through the north central U.S. early next week with additional systems possible across the central U.S. throughout the remainder of the week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...82 AT 12 WSW FLORIDA CITY FL AND MONROE FL

LOW TUE...27 BELOW ZERO AT CUT BANK MT AND HAVRE MT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT TUESDAY...KEY WEST, FL 2.56 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a strong ridge in northeast Canada and Greenland, another ridge near Alaska and into the eastern Pacific, and an arm of the polar vortex extending from western Canada into northern areas of the northern plains, northern Rockies, and Pacific Northwest. The polar vortex will dive southeast into the eastern half of the U.S. over the next few days as a ridge builds out in the West. Another trough will try to develop across the central U.S. early next week before the ridge across the west makes a shift east into the central U.S.

by the middle of the week. Behind this ridge, another trough will push into the central U.S. by late next week.

The U.S. and European models have the same pattern through the rest of this week, but are starting to show some disagreements on how a trough evolves across the central U.S. early next week. Consequently, these models still disagree on how much warmer it will get next week as well. I will use a blend, but favor the European, which is generally cooler.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be below to well below normal across the eastern half of the U.S. with above normal temperatures expanding across the west. A clipper will move through the north central U.S. early next week with additional systems possible across the central

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Well below temperatures will continue through the weekend. More widespread snow showers will continue to move into the region today along with gusty winds that will lead to blizzard conditions and dangerously cold wind chills. Dry conditions return for the end of the week but a clipper system may be possible late this weekend with a few additional systems following for early next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Below to well below temperatures will push south across the region over the next few days. More widespread rain and snow will enter the region from the west over the next few days with gusty winds that could lead to blizzard conditions. The highest amounts of snow are expected across the eastern half of the central Plains. After this system pushes through, any unprotected areas will be vulnerable for winter kill as a couple days of near-record cold will move in. Another system will provide northern areas with another shot of precipitation early next week.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Below to well below normal temperatures will stick around through early next week. A much stronger push of colder air will move through over the next few days and cause a very strong storm system that is likely to bring blizzard conditions, dangerous wind chills, and areas of heavy snow. Areas that do not end up with good snow cover will be at risk of winter kill on wheat. Lake-effect snows are likely to continue after the system pulls away. Another system will tag the area early next week with more snowfall.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Water levels will continue to recover through the rest of this week as another low pressure system will clip the region towards the end of the week and provide areas of snowfall into northern Arkansas with rainfall likely further south. Meanwhile, below to well below normal temperatures will also push into the region from the north and stick around through the weekend and into early next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will continue in central and northern Brazil through the rest of this week, as is typical for this time of year.

Drier conditions are returning for southern areas which will persist into early this weekend; however, this may cause some stress for corn in pollination.

Soybeans remain in mostly favorable condition, though dryness across the south is a little concerning there as well. By the end of this weekend and into early next week, more scattered showers may enter the region as a cold front works through.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): A cold front will provide scattered showers by the end of the week with below normal temperatures expected behind the front through early next week. While corn and soybean planting progress remains behind average with recent heat waves and limited rainfall, the rainfall potential at the end of this week could provide some improvements to developing corn and soybeans. Scattered showers from the cold front could linger through the early weekend before drier conditions return for the second half of the weekend and into early next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): An active pattern continues across the north through the remainder of the week and into the weekend while mostly dry conditions will prevail across southern areas where winter crops are active. Above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of this week and into early next week as well. Recent precipitation has improved soil moisture here, however, and should remain in good shape.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures below normal north to near to above normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday.

Temperatures near to well below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Monday, mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday.

Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below normal north and near to above normal south Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

Teresa Deutchman can be reached at Teresa.Deutchman@dtn.com

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