Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Falling soil moisture through much of the U.S., and a heatwave for eastern Europe and Ukraine are the weather factors holding the market's attention on Tuesday.

FRONT DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST

A strong cold front moved through the Midwest over the weekend. Although showers were streaky, some drier areas that had been developing got some needed moisture. The cooler temperatures that moved through have also extinguished the recent extreme heat for at least the next week. Another front will move into the region on Tuesday, stalling for the rest of the week and producing occasional showers. Temperatures may come up above normal ahead of the front, but nothing extreme is forecast. More areas are still in need of some rain and will find it, while others will undoubtedly stay dry as conditions worsen.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A cold front has stalled down in Texas and will continue to bring showers to the state through the week. The front also brought milder temperatures and any extreme heat will be limited for at least a week. Showers may also occur across Nebraska and Kansas this weekend as a system passes by to the north. And we will have to watch for a potential tropical system to move into Texas on Thursday. Even if it does not get classified as a tropical storm, heavy rain will be possible in eastern Texas and possibly into eastern Oklahoma as well. Any showers and cooler temperatures would be beneficial for growth for corn and soybeans, but have some negative effect on wheat harvest.

DAILY SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A cold front is settling over southern areas for the rest of the week with occasional spotty showers. The showers are helpful where they occur, but the reduction in temperatures is more significant as recent heat has been very stressful for developing cotton and soybeans. Heat and dryness will return in July, which will be concerning for crops.

HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Heat continues through most of the week outside of a brief relief midweek. The heat should hasten crop development where it has been a bit behind. With good soil moisture in the region, the higher temperatures are welcome. However, the heat could melt above-normal snowpack in the mountains a little more effectively, which could cause some flooding.

FRONT MEANDERING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Milder temperatures will be in place for most of the week, with a brief heat burst on Wednesday. A front will settle in the region on Tuesday and a system moving through Canada will bring potential for showers this week. The front will likely remain stalled near the area through the weekend as well. Showers will be streaky again, but at least remain in the area. That should keep soil moisture favorable for most of the region while favoring crop growth as well.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies late last week and weekend, continuing to favor some of the drier areas in the southwest, but keeping conditions too wet for much of the east. A system will move through tonight and Wednesday with more showers and potential for more systems over the weekend and next week. Conditions will continue to be mixed for a while, favoring the west over the east, including with temperatures.

GOOD CORN HARVEST WEATHER FOR BRAZIL

Favorable weather continues for both corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. Periods of showers will move through Rio Grande do Sul, while dryness continues farther north. Some wheat in other states could see some stress to development.

MIXED CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA

An upper-level low brought showers to the Black Sea region over the weekend, though they were spotty or streaky. That low has moved south toward Turkey this week, with showers becoming much more isolated, especially in Russia where dryness is becoming more of a concern. As the low retreats, the heat will increase in Ukraine, causing more concerns for corn and sunflowers. The weather will be more favorable for wheat harvest, however.

HEATWAVE THIS WEEK FOR EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers continued over western Europe over the weekend, while eastern areas still had a few showers but were much warmer as a heatwave was building. The heat will continue into next week, turning good conditions for spring crops into concerns with declining soil moisture. Meanwhile, the west is only getting a temporary break as the heat looks to come back next week. Showers are going to become more isolated as well, bringing concerns for the drier areas. However, winter wheat and other winter grains should have overall more favorable conditions.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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