DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge in the East and West with a trough over the middle of the country. Another trough is moving into the Eastern Pacific. All features will move eastward over the next few days. The western ridge will pause in the East while the Eastern Pacific trough builds into the West over the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the eastern ridge will prevent the trough from reaching too far eastward until late next week. Another trough will move into the West by late next week as the pattern stays active well into June.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be above normal across the Central and East and below normal in the West. The cooler temperatures will shift eastward through the rest of the week and weekend. The last in a series of systems will finally push south and east through the country late next week, but its front will run out of steam. Still, it may produce areas of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the country. Another system will move into the Pacific Northwest late next week or weekend with its eyes back on the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...112 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...17 AT TOPONAS CO

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...TUPELO MS 2.49 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- to 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East and West with a trough over the middle of the country. Another trough is moving into the Eastern Pacific. All features will move eastward over the next few days. The western ridge will pause in the East while the Eastern Pacific trough builds into the West over the weekend. The ridge will prevent the trough from reaching too far eastward until late next week. Another trough will move into the West by late next week as the pattern stays active well into June.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be above normal across the Central and East and below normal in the West. The cooler temperatures will shift eastward through the rest of the week and weekend. The last in a series of systems will finally push south and east through the country late next week, but its front will run out of steam. Still, it may produce areas of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the country. Another system will move into the Pacific Northwest late next week or weekend with its eyes back on the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier weather this week may have been enough to get planters rolling a little faster in North Dakota and the surrounding areas that have been too wet. But the window is short as a system moves in this weekend with periods of scattered showers going into the middle of next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Widespread heavy showers have fallen across the region this week and are finally pulling out on Thursday. Some flooding has occurred in spots. Another front and system should bring more showers through northern areas over the weekend and into next week. Wheat is likely too late to be able to use much of the moisture and the showers will only stabilize conditions at this point. But increases in moisture will benefit summer crops and pastures more.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region through Friday with heavier rain and some severe weather. A system will move into the Northern Plains and western Midwest this weekend. The front to the system will stall around Minnesota and Iowa going into next week. Periods of showers will continue there while areas to the east will be much drier for several days before the front finally pushes through late next week. That will open up another dry window for more fieldwork across eastern areas. Meanwhile, the rainfall that comes through Friday should be good for seed already in the ground.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers that moved through this week brought widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall to most areas. A longer dry stretch is expected through the middle of next week before a front moves through the region. The front may or may not be very active as it moves into the region. Recent showers are benefiting seed in the ground, but some upcoming dryness could cause some stress if it lasts too long and the front is inactive.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Another trough will move through the region Friday into next week with more showers and cooler temperatures again. Showers will benefit wheat, especially where dryness and drought remain concerns, but the cooler temperatures coming up will keep growth slower.

BRAZIL (CORN): It remains dry across central Brazil and continues to negatively affect corn that is mostly filling grain. A cold front is stalling out over southern states and will continue to produce widespread showers through next week to benefit pollinating to filling corn. The front is not expected to bring showers to central states.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): A cold front that moved through this week brought some showers to wheat areas, though amounts have been light. Some more light showers may be possible with a push of very cold air this weekend. Wheat needs more showers for good germination and early growth but will find cold temperatures instead, keeping both slow and uneven.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent dryness in eastern areas is benefiting soil draining. Some spotty showers may move across the region Thursday but another system is likely to bring more widespread moderate showers Friday into next week. Western areas will welcome it but eastern areas will not. Some frosts may occur behind the system as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Heat and dryness last week from Spain to Germany likely produced some damage to winter wheat and possibly early corn as well.

While cooler, the region stays fairly dry through the weekend. Periods of showers and better growing conditions will continue over eastern areas into next week. A storm system will bring more scattered showers to western areas next week, which will help those drier areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Colder temperatures and periods of showers will continue across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will rise next week and showers will become more isolated or absent. Soil moisture in the region is adequate, though there are some dry spots here and there throughout the region, mostly in parts of Ukraine and the Volga Valley of Russia.

Temperatures rising next week will promote growth for areas of good soil moisture but could stress those that are in need of some more rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture continues to be excellent for most areas of the country. Some periods of showers will continue throughout the weekend and into next week as well, with mostly favorable conditions for developing winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers north Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers east. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers far east Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday-Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Monday.

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