Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A storm system that could bring heavy rain to the Corn Belt next week and a delay in the start of central Brazil's wet season are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK FOR MIDWEST

Isolated to occasionally scattered showers will continue in the Midwest through the weekend; temperatures will continue to be above normal. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest. A system early- to mid-next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region but that is not certain yet. Soil moisture is still favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment as well but is declining.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN POTENTIAL FADING

Some isolated showers will be possible in the Southern Plains on Friday, but most areas should stay dry through the weekend while temperatures remain above normal. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and harvest and deplete soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. A system early next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region but models are suggesting much of the region, especially toward the west, will stay dry.

NORTHERN PLAINS STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

A system will bring showers through the Northern Plains early next week and could be on the heavier side, but that is not certain yet. Temperatures mostly above normal should favor maturing crops and harvest, unless the heavy rain does indeed occur.

ISOLATED DELTA SHOWERS

Nicholas and its remnants brought some heavier rains to the southern end of the Delta earlier this week, which may have caused damage to maturing cotton and soybeans. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible through the next week.

SOUTHEAST RAINS CONTINUING

Nicholas and its remnants will continue to spread moderate showers across the Southeast for the next couple of days, which may negatively impact maturing cotton. Otherwise, isolated showers over the next week will be possible.

SHOWERS RETURN TO THE BLACK SEA

Dry weather this week has favored maturing and harvest of summer crops, but the Black Sea region could use more moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. This is especially true across Russia, where it has been overly dry this summer. Some showers will move through over the weekend and into next week, which could help with that. Temperatures will cool significantly next week, which will also help to hold on to some of the soil moisture.

DELAYED WET SEASON START FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Southern Brazil will stay active into next week as a front remains stalled. This will favor winter wheat and recharge soil moisture for corn and soybeans. Central states are still awaiting the start of the wet season, which looks to be delayed. Soybean planting restrictions lifted this week but will need more moisture for seed-to-soil contact in these central areas before planting picks up. Models are suggesting it to stay relatively dry through the end of September with only isolated showers in Mato Grosso at times.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Dry conditions are expected in Argentina for the next week with only some isolated showers Sunday and Monday. Winter wheat has gotten some moisture lately but could use more as it gets further into reproduction. More moisture is needed for corn and soybean planting as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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