Commodities Market Impact Weather

Eastern Midwest Rain Focus

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Moderate to heavy rain in the forecast for the eastern Midwest and continued parched conditions over winter corn areas of Brazil are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Monday.

EASTERN MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for several periods of moderate to heavy rain in central and eastern Midwest during the coming week. The rain will bring increased soil moisture but will also cause planting delays. Drier areas of the northwestern Midwest will see only light showers. Temperatures will be below normal with some frost potential later in the week. No damaging cold is expected.

SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

The Southern Plains region had scattered showers during the past weekend. Moderate showers will continue through Tuesday. This bodes well for all developing crops in the region, especially winter wheat in the southwest. More isolated showers will fill out the week with a better chance for periods of moderate showers late Friday night into next week.

MORE NORTHERN PLAINS DROUGHT STRESS

Northern Plains areas had only scattered light showers during the past weekend. The moisture offered no easing of drought conditions. The coming week will see temperatures fall below freezing several days this week, which could damage any emerged corn. Some showers are expected but will remain light. There is a better chance for more moderate showers during the coming weekend May 7-9.

DELTA STORMS

The Delta has storms and locally heavy rain in store through the next few days. The rain will disrupt planting along with causing possible flooding.

SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

The southeastern U.S. has several chances for showers and thunderstorms activity in the coming week. Rain is favorable for soil moisture but will disrupt further planting.

CONTINUED PRAIRIES DROUGHT

The Canadian Prairies have mainly below-normal temperatures in store through the next week. Scattered weekend showers offered no meaningful easing of drought. Showers in the forecast for the coming weekend offer some benefit only for the southwest corner of the region.

ONGOING CENTRAL BRAZIL DRYNESS

Primary Brazil central crop areas remain in the grip of a very dry and hot pattern through the next seven days. The dry season appears to be setting in across the region. This is unfavorable for second-crop corn which has largely been planted later than average. Production estimates for corn are being lowered in response to the heat and drought.

COOL WITH SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

The Argentina forecast features periods of showers and mainly cool weather during the coming week. This will cause some row-crop harvest disruptions while offering beneficial conditions for the new wheat crop.

IMPROVED EUROPE CONDITIONS

Recent precipitation occurrences have improved the prospects for wheat across Europe. Rapeseed output has been reduced, however, due to the recent intense cold wave.

FAVORABLE RUSSIA PATTERN

The late-spring weather pattern remains favorable in Russia and Ukraine with periods of showers and only brief cool occurrences.

PROMISING AUSTRALIA OUTLOOK

Australia's primary western and eastern wheat areas have good chances for above-average precipitation in the next three months. This is a promising forecast for the next winter wheat crop. Early projections are for a large crop even though not matching the record harvest of the past year.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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