DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...87 AT PUNTA GORDA FL, SEBRING FL, AND SANTEE CA

LOW MON...15 BELOW ZERO AT PITTSBURG NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...ATLANTIC CITY NJ 0.91 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A series of weak troughs and disturbances will move through the country this week. One of these troughs will dig into the West late this week and weekend, moving through the middle of the country next week with an attendant storm early next week. Another trough will take its place in the West early next week and move across the country late next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar with the upper level pattern, but there are some key differences in how they treat storm systems. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal across the West and Northern Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. Some cooling may occur across the northern tier of the country as a system passes through, but the overall pattern of cool in the West and warm in the East should continue through the period. Disturbances may produce a few storm systems during the period, though models disagree on the timing and strength of these storms.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Temperatures have risen above normal and should continue for this week. Models disagree on whether to bring below normal air through the region afterward, but there is a chance. However, any below normal stretches are likely to be short-lived and not nearly as intense as we saw the last couple of weeks.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Mostly dry weather occurred over the weekend except in Nebraska, where some light to moderate snow occurred. Much of the week will be dry. Models are unsure of whether or not a storm system will move through this weekend, but it could be significant if it comes together, bringing widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to a region that continues to deal with drought across the north and west.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Recent moderate to heavy showers have eased much of the dryness and drought in the region. While showers move across the northern tier this week, it will be quieter and warmer. Models are unsure of how a storm system will come together this weekend, but it could be widespread moderate to heavy precipitation if everything aligns. This would likely benefit remaining dry areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continued from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais and points northward over the last week, creating further delays for soybean harvesting and corn planting. This looks to continue this week, though the showers may not be as widespread as the previous couple of weeks and may allow for some fieldwork to get done. A window for fieldwork opened again across the south recently. However, a front will come through between Tuesday and Thursday with widespread showers, which could be moderate to heavy. This would delay fieldwork but benefit immature corn and soybeans and any newly planted corn. After this front moves through, dryness looks to establish itself again over the south.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front produced some scattered showers over the weekend, but they were not widespread. More mature areas in the northeast were likely able to get some harvest completed while immature crops across the country created stress. A front moving through the country through early Wednesday will produce more showers. They could be intense where they occur, but it does not look to be a widespread event, leaving areas missed and stressed. Dryness will follow this front for the following week or maybe more.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Dry and warm weather returned to the majority of the continent this weekend, benefiting vegetative winter wheat across the south, where soil moisture has been mostly adequate to surplus. The warmth and dryness is expected to continue, melting some of the snowpack across the continent this week.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions last week were replaced by showers in the west this weekend into Monday. Dryness in Algeria continues to be concerning for vegetative wheat as dryness will likely continue across the majority of the region this week, though some showers may return to Morocco late this week.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): A tropical cyclone remained far enough offshore not to make much of an impact this weekend other than keeping the region drier than it has been over the growing season. With the cyclone moving far southeast of the region, showers have returned for the week, benefiting developing sugarcane and reproductive to filling corn.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers have fallen across the east coast this weekend, but most of the interior remained dry. Despite this, soil moisture and irrigation supplies remain adequate for cotton and sorghum. Showers will likely pop back up later this week for New South Wales and Queensland and continue into the coming weekend.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Dryness continues to impact Malaysia, with more isolated showers over Sumatra. While rainfall this season has been adequate to surplus, the growing dryness is becoming a concern.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers north and east. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers late Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

East: Scattered showers northeast Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday and Friday, above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday and Monday, near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers west late Wednesday into Thursday, south Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday through Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday, north Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Saturday.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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