DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...109 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW SUN...18 AT FOSTER FLAT OR

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8PM SUNDAY...TALLAHASSEE FL 0.89 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the central U.S. and a ridge in the West. The trough will expand through the Eastern U.S. this week but the overall pattern of ridge in the West and trough in the East will hold into next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar for most of the period so I will use a blend of the models.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be above to well above normal in the West and near to below normal in the Central and East.

Temperatures will gradually rise through the period east of the Rockies. A system will bring some showers to the eastern Plains and Midwest over the weekend into early next week, but most areas will remain dry.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN): Isolated to scattered showers fell over the weekend and may have caused some delays to corn harvest and fieldwork. Overall dryness this week will benefit ongoing activity, though. A couple nights near or below freezing will be possible in the middle of the week and could cause more rapid maturing.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers on Sunday will exit eastern Texas on Monday. Soil moisture remains adequate for early germination of wheat, with increasing soil moisture in eastern Kansas from the weekend showers. Dryness the rest of the week should allow for more winter wheat planting progress to be made and corn harvest to continue.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): A frontal boundary brought showers to western areas of the region this weekend. Showers will continue eastward into Tuesday.

Moderate rainfall could cause harvest delays for corn and soybeans along with winter wheat planting. The small percentage of wheat already in the ground will benefit from the increased topsoil moisture. Behind the rainfall, temperatures will fall significantly, leading to frost potential across the north in the middle to late week time period. This may cause more rapid maturation of crops across the region.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dry weather occurred this weekend. Showers will move through on Monday but dry weather will follow behind it for the remainder of the week, with favorable harvest weather.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON): Scattered showers filled in again across the area on Sunday. Very wet soils from two tropical systems over the last 7-10 days have likely caused some flooding and damage to mature cotton. Showers continue into early Wednesday before beneficial drier weather sets up for the following several days.

BRAZIL (CORN/COTTON/WHEAT): Scattered showers fell across southern areas this weekend with very few showers in the central soybean areas. A stalled frontal boundary across the south will continue periods of showers through the next week for Rio Grande do Sul while other areas remain relatively dry. Producers continue to await the start of the wet season for soybean planting but conditions are much better in the south for full-season corn and filling winter wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Moderate to heavy rain fell across much of the country this weekend, boosting soil moisture for many areas in the central and south. This will benefit developing wheat and prepare soils for spring planting, though it will not be enough to reverse the drought yet. Showers will focused over northern areas this week along a stalled frontal boundary while cooler weather develops across the south, limiting growth for wheat.

EUROPE (SPRING GRAINS/CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A system has brought widespread showers to the continent over the weekend, boosting soil moisture for winter grains planting. Harvest activities have been delayed, however. Showers will continue over eastern areas this week. Another system will move into the west later this week with a potent punch of showers through the weekend.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): The region continues to be under drought conditions, but showers did fall over Ukraine this weekend.

Showers will continue over Ukraine through much of the week as a cutoff system stalls in the area, but very little to no precipitation is expected in Russia.

The showers will benefit planting and developing winter wheat in Ukraine but the dryness continues to be overly concerning for Russia.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT): Scattered showers fell this weekend but were generally very light, allowing harvest to progress. Outside of some isolated showers in the east, most areas will be dry this week, with unencumbered progress.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Scattered showers fell across southern areas this weekend. A system will bring light showers across the east this week, but most areas will be on the drier end. Queensland is still behind in rainfall and could use additional moisture for developing to reproductive wheat and rapeseed.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Recent showers maintained adequate to surplus soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans in the northeast, but crops should be coming closer to maturity and drier conditions would be more favorable. Scattered showers will likely delay maturing corn and soybeans.

Overall favorable conditions are found in the south for rice and sugarcane and in the North China Plain for winter wheat and rapeseed planting.

INDIA (SUGARCANE/RICE/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon moisture continues to withdraw from the country and showers are becoming much more isolated across the north and west. Still, the showers can be counted on for late-season fill in the east.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers, moderate south. Temperatures near above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers west. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Scattered showers Monday into early Tuesday, moderate at times. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday, east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers exiting southeast Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered moderate showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers central and north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Scattered showers south Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered moderate to heavy showers. Temperatures falling to near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered moderate to heavy showers. Temperatures falling to near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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