DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over Alaska. A series of troughs across Canada and a weak ridge over northern Greenland. This is producing mild temperatures in far western Canada, cold to very cold elsewhere. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A weak trough off the northwest coast of Mexico. A migratory trough over the northwest U.S. A migratory ridge over the north-central U.S. and a trough in the eastern U.S. and northwest atlantic. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located to the south of Bermuda.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in good agreement days 6-7, fair-poor agreement days 8-10. We are going with the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a series of troughs extending from Alaska across northern Canada and Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Some ridging over northern portions of the eastern pacific extending into the western U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. This will be a less active precipitation pattern for the central U.S. with the trough to the east. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation mostly below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal.
The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino
DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...90 AT TITUSVILLE AND CECIL FIELD FL LOW WED...39 BELOW ZERO AT KABETOGAMA MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…JACKSON MS 2.03 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The overall pattern from the U.S. and European ensembles is in fair to poor agreement. I will continue to side with the European models as the U.S. models have been too erratic. The recent pattern of trough west and ridge east will break down, with a split jet feature over the west including a ridge over the northern Rockies will spread across the north and a trough in the Southwest that will mill about for a few days before spreading through the Southeast next weekend. Split jets give forecast models challenges so the forecast may change as we head into next week.

The front to a system exiting through the Northeast next Wednesday will stall near the Gulf Coast, focusing showers in this area through the end of the week, including the southern Delta. In contrast, the U.S. models have a system moving through the eastern half of the country. Will side with the European and its drier solution for the Midwest.

Temperatures will fall below normal behind the early week system but the split jet feature would lead to a rebound of warmer than normal temperatures for the northern half of the country while the southern half remains below normal through next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): There is a good chance for more persistent showers in the southern growing areas Friday through early next week to ease some dryness.

Continued periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the rest of the growing areas, though northeastern areas continue to fall behind in needed rainfall. Crop damage and reduced production is expected in this area.

Otherwise, there is little delay in the continued harvest of soybeans and planting of cotton and safrinha (second crop) corn as showers are spotty enough to work around.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued Wednesday into Thursday, benefiting developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Another good shot comes early next week. If the showers are more isolated than expected, concern over dryness will return.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Mostly dry through the weekend. A system will spread some snowfall over portions of Nebraska and Kansas and maybe some showers and thunderstorms over far eastern Oklahoma and Texas, but miss the drier areas to the southwest that are in need of additional moisture. Temperatures will fall below to well below normal behind the system, but should not be enough to damage crops or overly stress livestock.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): A brief drier period is expected through the weekend for most areas. Another strong system moves through early next week with heavy snow over the north and west and heavy rain toward the Ohio River. Saturated soils remain a concern.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Temperatures are rebounding Friday but will fall back below normal late this weekend through the middle of next week, stressing livestock. Temperatures will rise back above normal toward the end of next week.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Conditions will be drier through the weekend in the major crop areas, but showers look to come back by early next week. No significant concerns are expected for crops.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Precipitation has been more than adequate this winter. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops areas this spring, including irrigation reserves to the north.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Decent rains over the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops. The weather pattern is drier during the next ten days but crops look to be in good shape.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Periods of rainfall and above normal temperatures continue for much of the continent, though the south and southeast growing areas could use more precipitation. Warmer temperatures mostly favors these crops but leaves them less winter hardy than usual this time of year. The pattern continues to favor above normal temperatures and no major cold snaps are expected for at least the next 2 weeks.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Above normal temperatures and a lack of showers over the last two weeks have stressed developing to reproductive wheat for most of the region. With little prospect for showers in the next week or two, damage to the crop is looking more likely.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Above normal temperatures continue for the next 7-10 days. Otherwise the snow that fell last week and the showers this week have boosted soil moisture in the area.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Heavy rain is turning more showery and locally heavy, mostly toward the coast, but showers will continue through early next week. Boosts to irrigation supplies have been reported. It is mostly too late for much of the crops, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Light snow as the system departed. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. System spreading light to snow north on Saturday and Sunday. Moderate rain south and moderate snow over northern Missouri and southern Iowa developing on Monday, ending on Tuesday.

Temperatures well below normal Friday, near normal to above normal Saturday, above normal south and below normal north Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Lake-effect snow in the prone areas Friday. Light snow over the north on Saturday into Sunday. Moderate rain south and moderate to heavy snow over northern Illinois into Michigan developing Monday, exiting Tuesday.

Temperatures well below normal Friday, below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. A clipper-type system possible over the north Sunday with some wintry mix. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday, mostly above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Light to moderate snow in western Kansas/Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Sunday, snow developing over Nebraska Sunday night, spreading to eastern Colorado and Kansas on Monday along with chances for showers and thunderstorms over far eastern Oklahoma and Texas. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, below normal west, near to above normal east on Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Some showers far south Wednesday-Friday, including potential for moderate snow in Texas. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal north and below normal south Saturday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry with a few very isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday in RGDS, spreading north a bit on Sunday. Mostly dry or a few isolated showers Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Widely scattered light to locally heavy showers. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry the rest of Friday and Saturday. Isolated moderate showers possible Sunday, scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms Monday, mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to slightly below normal Friday, near to slightly above normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday, below normal Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Moderate showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday, more likely and more widespread Sunday night into Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to slightly below normal Friday, near to slightly above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

(SK)