Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued rain chances for Argentina in the next 10 days, some rain opportunities for southern Brazil, and another round of heavy precipitation early next week in the Midwest, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

ANOTHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IN MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for a brief drier period through the weekend for most areas as a system leaves Thursday. Another strong system early next week with heavy snow over the north and west and heavy rain toward the Ohio River. Saturated soils remain a concern. Temperatures well-below normal for Thursday and Friday will turn higher on the weekend.

MOSTLY DRY FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the central and Southern Plains, it will be mostly dry until early next week. This next system more likely will produce snowfall over Kansas and Nebraska and some showers and thunderstorms over far eastern Oklahoma and Texas, missing the drier areas to the southwest that are in need of more moisture. Temperatures will be below to well-below normal behind the system, but not enough to damage crops or overly stress livestock.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

For the Northern Plains, a blast of very low temperatures Thursday quickly rebound Friday. Temperatures go back below normal late weekend through the middle of next week to stress livestock. Temperatures go back above normal toward the end of next week.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN NEXT WEEK

Brazil will see limited chances for additional precipitation over southern areas until Friday night. There is some hope for more persistent showers in this area this weekend through next week to ease some dryness. Continued periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the rest of the growing areas, though northeastern areas (Bahia) continue to fall behind in needed rainfall. Crop damage and reduced production is expected in these areas. Otherwise, little delay is expected in the harvest of soybeans and planting progress for cotton and safrinha (second-crop) corn as showers are spotty enough to work around.

BENEFICIAL ARGENTINA RAIN

A few more shots at moderate precipitation are forecast for Argentina during the next 10 days, beneficial for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. If the showers are more isolated than expected, concern over dryness will return.

WARMER FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Russia and Ukraine will have warmer conditions return this week and continue for the next seven to 10 days. Otherwise, the snow that fell last week is likely to boost soil moisture in the area.

BENEFICIAL SOUTH AFRICA TREND

South Africa will be drier during the next few days, but recent rains continue favorable conditions for developing to reproductive maize and sugarcane. Showers look to come back by early next week. There are no significant concerns for crops.

NORTHWEST AFRICA NEEDS MORE RAIN

In northwest Africa, warm weather and a lack of showers during the last two weeks has stressed developing to reproductive wheat for most of the region. With little prospect for showers in the next week or two, damage to the crop is looking more likely.

RAIN, WARMER FOR EUROPE

There has been plenty of rain and a return to above-normal temperatures for much of Europe, though the south and southeast growing areas could use more precipitation. Higher temperatures mostly favor winter wheat and rapeseed crops, but leaves them less winter hardy than usual this time of year. The pattern continues to favor above-normal temperatures and no major cold snaps for at least the next two weeks.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RAIN

In Australia, heavy rain is turning more showery and locally heavy, mostly toward the coast, but continues through the week. Tropical Cyclone Uesi looks to stay offshore as it passes by on Thursday and Friday. Boosts to irrigation supplies have been reported. It is mostly too late for much of the crops, however.

DRIER PATTERN FOR INDIA

Decent rains during the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops in India. The weather pattern is drier during the next 10 days, but crops look to be in good shape.

ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS CHINA MOISTURE

Precipitation has been more than adequate this winter in China's winter wheat and rapeseed areas. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crop areas this spring, including irrigation reserves to the north.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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