DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over Alaska. A flat ridge with embedded disturbances across northern Canada. A trough between northeast Canada and Greenland and a weak ridge over eastern Greenland. This is producing mild/cool temperatures across Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific extending to the west coast of the U.S. A series of weak ridges and troughs over the U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 9 days, fair agreement day 10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over Alaska. A weak ridge over western Canada. A trough over central and northeast Canada. A weak ridge over Greenland. This will produce mild temperatures in western Canada, variable central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. A trough extending from the Rockies to the Midwest and a ridge along and off the east coast of the U.S. This will be an active precipitation pattern for much of the central U.S. under the trough aloft supplied with gulf moisture from the ridge in the east. Temperatures will be variable but generally trending cooler under the trough.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...88 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW TUE...10 BELOW ZERO AT GRAND FORKS ND

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…SEATTLE WA 1.19 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, only fair agreement towards the end of the period. I favor the European model today.

We see a split jet stream pattern for most of this period. Early in the period the polar trough will be split between centers northwest of Alaska and near or just north of Hudson Bay Canada while a southern branch trough moves from the southern Rockies across the central plains and then lifts northward over the Midwest and the Great Lakes region. Later in the period the polar trough is split between centers north of Alaska and northeast of Hudson bay, the Hudson Bay portion of this trough is lifting northward during this time frame. The mean southern branch trough remains over the Midwest during this time while a secondary trough moves to southwestern Canada and the extreme northwest US.

The split nature of the polar trough suggests that while it may turn colder in Canada relative to where it is now it may not drop to below normal levels.

It also suggests that it would be difficult for this colder weather to advance significantly into the US even if it were to turn colder than expected in Canada. The southern branch trough may bring some precipitation to the Midwest and Delta area early in the period but once the mean trough settles in over the Midwest it should be drier from the middle to the late period.

The US model, if it were to verify instead, suggests a stronger and more concentrated polar trough centered over Hudson Bay Canada, especially late in the period. This implies a much colder outlook for the Canadian Prairies region and to a somewhat lesser extent the northeast plains/northwest Midwest areas.

The US model handles the southern branch trough and surface low about the same as the European model during the early part of the period. This also implies some precipitation potential for the Midwest and Delta areas during the early part of the period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/FULL SEASON CORN): Favorable weather for filling soybeans in the major growing areas of Brazil. The early harvest is increasing in central Brazil. Some beneficial rain in northeast Brazil last week where dry weather has impacted planted acreage which will lower expected production.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Generally favorable weather for pollinating and filling corn and developing and filling soybeans in the major growing areas of central Argentina at this time. Rainfall overnight in the central growing belt appears to be heavier than I was thinking yesterday. We will know more once the official rainfall totals are issued this morning. In either case episodes of hotter temperatures and periodic rain makes for a variable pattern as it concerns crop development and prospects.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Improving soil moisture and no major cold weather events will favor overwintering wheat through the southern plains. Snow, possibly 6-12 inches, in the feedlots of southwest Kansas during the past 36 hours. Increased stress to livestock for a time. In general a more favorable weather pattern follows this snow storm. However, the melting snow might mean muddy feed lots for a time.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): Saturated soils across the Midwest are expected to lead to fieldwork and planting delays in the spring unless a drier weather pattern develops. A southern storm track suggests that the Midwest region will continue favorably drier during the next 7 days, at least.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): No significant storms this week. Warmer temperatures continue for at least the next 5 days. Beyond that period some risk for colder weather to redevelop, especially if today's US model turns out to be more correct.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Conditions mostly favor developing maize and sugarcane at this time, after recent rains and a variable temperature pattern.

Some risk for a drier and somewhat warmer trend during the next 10 days, especially through north and central areas.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Winter time precipitation and no major cold snaps will mostly favor overwintering crops. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops near the Yangtze river and mostly adequate soil moisture and irrigation through the North China Plain this spring. Also of note, increasing rain south of the Yangtze river should improve conditions for planting crops during the coming months.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Developing to early reproductive wheat and rapeseed will have benefited from significant rains that have occurred during January. Light to moderate showers have also occurred in Pakistan and northwest India since the weekend. This favors winter wheat in key growing areas in and around Punjab Pakistan and Punjab India.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Winter grain and oilseed areas of Europe are expected to see above to well above normal temperatures during the next 7 days before cooling somewhat. This likely means limited, if any, protective snow cover and a crop less hardy than it would be under normal weather. The crop remains vulnerable in the event of a sudden turn to cold weather.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Winter wheat has likely benefited from a recent increase in rain and more seasonal temperatures. However, it appears likely that the region will be drier and warmer during the next 10 days.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): No significant cold weather threats during the next 7 to 10 days.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms occurred through east-central Australia during January. Improved conditions for developing crops but there is still a long way to go to end the drought. Following the extremes of the growing season, I am not sure whether this will matter much as it concerns the yield forecasts for these crops but it should at least stabilized crop yield forecasts.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: A little light precipitation west and south areas during the past 24 hours. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry or with only a little very light precipitation today through Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Light precipitation develops during Monday or Monday night, favoring southern and eastern areas. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

East: Mostly dry or with only a little very light precipitation today through Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Thursday, above normal Friday.

Chance for a little light precipitation through northeast areas Saturday, dry elsewhere in the region Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Light to moderate showers or rain develops during Monday or Monday night. Temperatures average above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal Monday, near normal west and well above normal east Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday through Friday. Precipitation is expected to average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Snow and sleet yesterday through western and southern Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma. Rain and thundershowers central and southern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Snowfall during the past couple of days reached 6-12 inches and locally heavier in southwest and a little of south-central Kansas, 2-5 inches elsewhere in west and south Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle.

Temperatures near to below normal southwest, near to above normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal central and south and near to above normal north today and Thursday, enhanced by the snow cover in southwest and south-central Kansas. Temperatures above normal north and near normal south Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Chance for showers southeast areas and a little snow in the west during Monday or Monday night. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary during this period, some cold and some warm weather. Precipitation near to below normal west and northeast areas, near to above normal southeast.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Scattered to widely scattered light to moderate showers mainly from Santa Catarina through south and central Parana during the past 24 hours. A few light showers in RGDS during this time. Drier in northern Parana. Temperatures near to above normal. Highs mostly 86 to 95F yesterday.

Forecast: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers from northern RGDS to Parana today into Thursday. Scattered showers may linger in Parana during Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, near to below normal tomorrow, near normal Friday.

Mostly dry from RGDS to southern Parana Saturday through Monday. Northern Parana may see scattered showers Saturday and Sunday before turning drier Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to widely scattered light showers with locally heavier during the past 24 hours, favoring western and southern areas. Temperatures near to below normal north and east, near to above normal southwest and central areas.

Forecast: Daily chances for a few afternoon or night time showers and thundershowers during today through Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near to above normal north.

Scattered to widely scattered light showers with locally heavier Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to mostly above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers favoring south and west areas yesterday. Rain, showers and thunderstorms have developed during the night.

Temperatures near normal yesterday. Highs 86 to 91F.

Forecast: Rain and a few thundershowers linger this morning, drier during the afternoon. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to below normal today, below normal tomorrow, near normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers and thundershowers redevelop during Monday or Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday and Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Scattered showers, 0.10-0.75 inch and locally heavier, during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal. High temperatures ranged from 86 to 98F yesterday, hottest in La Pampa and southwestern Buenos Aires.

Forecast: Dry or with only a little drizzle early today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures below normal today, near to below normal tomorrow, above normal west and south and near normal northeast during Friday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Saturday and Sunday. Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier during Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal through Monday, somewhat cooler Tuesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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