DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough between Siberia and Alaska. A ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada extending into western Greenland and some ridging over Iceland. This is producing mild temperatures in western Canada, cool/cold central, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific extending into the northwest U.S. A trough in the southwest U.S. A trough over the Great Lakes. A ridge along the east coast of the U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located in the Yucatan Channel and off the southwest coast of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 8 days, fair agreement days 9-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska. A trough over central Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This will produce cool/cold temperatures over much of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. A ridge in the eastern U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. This will be an active precipitation pattern for much of the central and eastern U.S. along the boundary zone between the cold air to the west associated with the trough and the warm air to the east associated with the ridge. Temperatures will be on the mild side over eastern portions of the central U.S. closer to the ridge, variable over western areas closer to the trough.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...93 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...4 BELOW ZERO AT CROSBY ND

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…FLAGSTAFF AZ 1.20 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, only fair agreement at the end of the period. I favor today's European model as it concerns the end of the period.

The main feature during the period next Wednesday through Friday will be a deepening upper level trough and surface storm over the northeast US and especially the Canadian Maritimes, a ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico and inches northward into the Gulf Coast states and a deep trough along the west coast sliding southward to southern California by the end of this period. The impact of the northeast US/southeast Canada trough, aside from direct impacts on New England and especially southeast Canada, is to slow down the progression of systems. This leads to increasing precipitation west of the Rockies along with colder temperatures in that area. It also leads to much warmer warmer temperatures moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico and increasing low level moisture associated with this late year southerly flow off the Gulf.

Today's European model at the end of the period shows a portion of the western trough moving east and lifting a little to the north across the Rockies and into the plains region. A new trough is shown dropping south over the Pacific Northwest at that time. The Gulf of Mexico ridge weakens a little and the northeast trough first weakens and then is reinforced by a new trough moving into the area from the northwest. The main weather maker will be the southern plains trough with increased chances for precipitation over the central and southern plains, the western and northern Delta and the southwest and central Midwest. No significant cold weather east of the Rockies, except possibly in the New England States at times. Snow may still occur in some northerly areas as this time of year it does not have to be below normal to snow.

The US model shows a deeper trough and surface storm moving out of the southwest US through the central plains and across the western Midwest at the end of the period. This suggest heavier precipitation chances for not only the central and south plains region but most of the Midwest and even a slight risk in the northeast plains. This difference has been consistent all week and is difficult to resolve. I may using more of the longer term more consistent European model but this is issued with some uncertainty.

High confidence forecasts include much needed precipitation west of the Rockies including California and also much colder temperatures west of the Rockies, warmer temperatures associated with the Gulf of Mexico ridge from the eastern plains eastward, except the northeast. Moderate confidence forecasts include increasing precipitation central and southern plains, Midwest and Delta. Low confidence forecast would include increased precipitation northern plains.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTH AND WEST PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Drier weather and a variable temperature pattern through early next week helps ease stress to livestock. Beyond that time frame the forecast becomes more uncertain.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Snow cover and wet conditions due to melting snow means delays to late year harvest progress. Some slow improvement into early next week.

Beyond that time frame the weather pattern is more uncertain.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT): Wet conditions due to recent rains slows harvest activities at this time. Some additional rain for southeast Midwest areas this weekend and for eastern areas early next week. The 6-10 day period is likely to feature more rain and in some areas snow, further delaying the final harvest efforts in the Midwest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: No significant cold weather threats during the next 10 days. The coldest weather is likely to occur west of the Rockies. Increasing precipitation will improve soil moisture conditions for late, slow, development of wheat.

BRAZIL (Soybeans/full season corn): Mainly dry or with only a few light showers from RGDS northward to MGDS through the weekend period. Temperatures above normal. Rain is expected to develop in RGDS Monday and spread through Parana to MGDS Tuesday and Wednesday. This will help to ease stress to early developing crops in Parana and MGDS while also slowing planting progress in RGDS for a time. Mato Grosso and Goias crop areas will see somewhat less activity and warm to hot temperatures until about the middle of next week when it turns wetter/cooler again.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN): Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected Sunday night into Monday. If verified this would provide needed moisture for planting and early development and cool temperatures to help ease stress to crops. It continues to look moderate to locally heavy but compared to the last couple of days it has backed off just a bit.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers occurred in the region during the past few days. This will help to improve conditions for planting and early development. Longer range it looks to turn drier and possibly hot during the 6-10 day period. This will bear watching.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON/SUGARCANE): The eastern Australia crop area is likely to see below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures during the next 10 days. Increasing risks to the summer crops planted in the region, due to on going drought conditions. Showers may increase somewhat in New South Wales, helping to ease drought conditions, but these look to occur mostly south of key summer crop areas.

ITALY (WINTER WHEAT): The north Italy area looks to be trending somewhat drier during the next 5-7 days. This should help ease the flooding risk somewhat, although floods will be very slow to recede. I am not sure how much longer than that it might remain drier. Longer range suggests some risk for heavier rains returning to the area.

SOUTHEAST EUROPE/WEST UKRAINE (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness during the fall period has been a concern in these locations, leading to poor germination and early development of the wheat crop. At this date it is difficult to improve the condition of the crop but we can still build soil moisture supplies for spring development, if it were to rain and temperatures are warmer than normal. The chance for meaningfull rain during the next 5-7 days is limited. In addition to this colder weather is moving over these locations.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Dry or with only a little light precipitation during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

East: Light to moderate showers and some rain during the past 24 hours.

Heaviest northeast and south areas. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today, above normal northwest and below normal southeast tomorrow, above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Light precipitation, favoring southern and eastern areas, during Tuesday. Drier again Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

East: Light rain or drizzle may linger in southeast areas today, drier elsewhere in the region today. Light rain or showers favoring southeast to east-central areas during Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal tomorrow, near to below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Light to moderate showers or rain Tuesday with some heavier possibly in northern areas. Also a chance rain may change to snow through northwest areas. Drier again during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during this period. Precipitation near to above normal.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers during Sunday. Temperatures average near normal today, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Chance for light precipitation during Wednesday. Temperatures average near normal west and above normal east Monday, below normal west and near normal east Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal west, somewhat more variable east. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Light to locally moderate showers south, fair north, yesterday. Light snow and rain through western and some central areas during the night.

Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows. The afternoon highs averaged below normal through north and central areas, above normal through the south.

Forecast: Showers or light rain lingers in southeast areas today. Light snow-ice-rain through much of Kansas today into this evening. Locally up to

0.25 inch melted. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Light precipitation favoring north and southeast areas Tuesday. Light to locally moderate precipitation favoring southern areas Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal northwest, above normal south and east. Precipitation near to above normal.

Brazil Soybeans…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures above normal. Highs yesterday mostly between 91 and 98F.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier today or during tonight. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average above normal today with highs again mostly in the 90s F, somewhat cooler during the weekend... especially southern and eastern areas. It may remain somewhat hotter through western Parana during the weekend.

Rain, showers and thundershowers develop in RGDS during Monday. Showers and thundershowers move through central and northern areas Tuesday and linger over Parana into Wednesday. Rainfall potential looks moderate to heavy. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: A few thundershowers were indicated in eastern Mato Grosso and Goias during the past 24 hours, occurring with low coverage. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures above normal west and south with highs in the 90s, below normal northeast areas with readings only in the 80s.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring eastern Mato Grosso and portions of Goias, during today through Sunday.

Temperatures average above normal west and south, near normal northeast.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring north and east areas, Monday. Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Monday, cooler Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

Argentina Corn and Soybeans…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, north Buenos Aires...

Summary: Light showers favoring southern areas yesterday and during the night.

Isolated activity northeast areas overnight. Little elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs yesterday in the middle 80s to the low 90s.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier today.

Mostly dry Saturday and most of Sunday. Scattered showers and thundershowers develop during Sunday night and continue into Monday. This activity looks to be moderate to locally heavy. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Sunday, cooler Monday.

Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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