DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level chart features a deep trough centered in southern Ontario, associated with the strong storm and blizzard of the last last week and early in the weekend. We see a split trough in western North America with one piece over western Canada and a second over central California. High latitude ridges are shown in northeast Canada and in Alaska. Subtropical ridging is shown from Mexico, across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and the southwestern Atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are fair agreement today. I favor a compromise between the models. The period begins with a short wave trough over the Pacific Northwest next Saturday. This trough is expected to deepen over the plains and western Midwest next Sunday and Monday before lifting northward into Canada again Tuesday and Wednesday. A new trough moves from western Canada into the north-central U.S. next Tuesday and Wednesday. The models show a storm system forming ahead of the first trough with significant precipitation and potentially winds developing. The U.S. model is somewhat further south and east with this system than the European model. The European model has the heavier precipitation chance over the northeast plains, while the U.S. model has it over the western and northern Midwest. The secondary trough at the end of the period does not have much moisture associated with it, mainly because it is too close to the first trough. Temperatures will warm ahead of the first trough and cool again behind it. These coolest mainly in the plains/western Midwest as in the eastern U.S. we see signs of some ridging over the east coast states or in the western Atlantic. The southern winds ahead of the trough and behind the ridge should mean ample moisture so moderate or heavy precipitation is expected where along this frontal boundary. My bias would be for the area from the east-central and southeast plains through most of the Midwest and the Delta in terms of heavy precipitation potential. However after recent events I can not discount the idea on the European model of a new storm in the northeast plains/northwest Midwest at this point. Finally, it does not look very cold behind the trough but due to the time of year any below normal weather would feature frosts or freezing conditions over the north-central U.S. areas.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

HIGH SUN...94 AT CASA GRANDE AZ
LOW SUN...5 AT HARBISON MEADOW CO AND COWDREY CO
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…CHARLOTTE NC 1.00 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are fair agreement Monday. I favor a compromise between the models. The period begins with a short wave trough over the Pacific Northwest next Saturday. This trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and western Midwest next Sunday and Monday before lifting northward into Canada again Tuesday and Wednesday. A new trough moves from western Canada into the north-central U.S. next Tuesday and Wednesday. The models show a storm system forming ahead of the first trough with significant precipitation and potential winds developing. The U.S. model is somewhat further south and east with this system than the European model. The European model has the heavier precipitation chance over the northeast Plains, while the U.S. model has it over the western and northern Midwest. The secondary trough at the end of the period does not have much moisture associated with it, mainly because it is too close to the first trough. Temperatures will warm ahead of the first trough and cool again behind it. These coolest mainly in the plains/western Midwest as in the eastern U.S. we see signs of some ridging over the east coast states or in the western Atlantic. The southern winds ahead of the trough and behind the ridge should mean ample moisture, so moderate or heavy precipitation is expected along this frontal boundary. My bias would be for the area from the east-central and southeast Plains through most of the Midwest and the Delta in terms of heavy precipitation potential. However after recent events, I cannot discount the idea on the European model of a new storm in the northeast Plains/northwest Midwest at this point. Finally, it does not look very cold behind the trough but due to the time of year, any below normal weather would feature frosts or freezing conditions over the north central U.S. areas.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 5:00 a.m. AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 54.0 West. Melissa is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster east-northeast or east motion is expected later Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later Monday and dissipate in a day or so.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Heavy snow, blowing snow and strong winds occurred in Manitoba during the Friday-Saturday time period. Blizzard conditions for a time. Travel, transport and harvesting will be at a standstill in the area for an extended period. Hard freeze conditions during the weekend. Any immature crops likely saw some damage or quality issues due to this weather. However this will firm the ground and make it easier for harvesting in areas away from the heavy snow areas, mainly west and some central locations. A quieter period during the next five-to-seven days. However we will be watching the potential for a new storm to form in the U.S. and move close to Manitoba or into Ontario again early next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS: A major snow and wind event Friday into Saturday. This included blizzard conditions and very heavy snowfall, 1-2 feet in central and east North Dakota. This impacted travel, transport and harvest progress. It may also mean crop lodging in areas of heavy snow and strongest winds. Livestock is also at risk due to the cold, heavy precipitation and now deep snow cover. A growing season ending hard freeze as well. Gradually improving conditions during this week.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Wet conditions in the western Midwest is unfavorable for maturing crops leading to poor drying conditions ahead of the harvest. A season ending freeze in western and some central areas early this weekend and again in some areas Monday morning would damage immature crops. Frost and a light freeze also through northwest and central areas of the eastern Midwest. Showers in the eastern Midwest generally favor filling crops especially in Indiana and Ohio where conditions have been dry. Improving conditions for mature crops and harvesting this week but more rain and potential stormy weather is expected to the six-to 10 day period.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: Strong winds and much colder weather Friday and Saturday. Germination and early development of recently planted winter wheat will slow with the lower temperatures with a hard freeze through west and central areas. Higher temperatures during this week. Somewhat colder again early next week.

WEST-CENTRAL BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Dry or with only a few light showers during the weekend period. Hot temperatures redeveloped through key growing areas for soybeans in Mato Grosso to RGDS during Saturday and Sunday as well. High temperatures 97 to 102 F both days. Northern growing areas may see a few showers/thundershowers Monday and Tuesday but then go drier again middle to late week. Hot most of this week. Some chance for scattered thundershowers early next week. Planting progress may slow in areas that remain drier, hotter this week. RGDS will see episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers this week, lower temperatures. Parana may see a few showers and isolated thundershowers but will remain somewhat hotter.

ARGENTINA (CORN): Thunderstorms, some with very heavy rainfall, occurred in northern Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Entre Rios during the weekend period. This likely means local flooding due to some strong storms. Adequate-to-surplus soil moisture for corn planting. Scattered thunderstorms also developed in Cordoba during Sunday and Sunday night. Some improvement to planting moisture in areas of the heavier showers in Cordoba.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/SORGHUM/COTTON): Light to moderate showers occurred in Western Australia wheat areas, improving conditions for reproductive and filling wheat. More rain is still needed, however. Rain also developed in northeast NSW and southeast Queensland this weekend. However, this rain fell mainly east of key growing areas for sorghum and cotton areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary: West: Dry or with only a little light precipitation, including snow showers, through northern areas during the Friday-Saturday time period. Mostly dry or with only snow showers northeast areas Sunday. Temperatures averaged well below normal. Lows Saturday morning were mostly 27 to 31 F, except it was colder through central Nebraska...down to 17 to 25 F. Lows Sunday 27 to 36 F. Frost or light-to-hard freeze conditions.

East: Light to moderate rain with some heavier mostly dry Friday, heaviest eastern Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Drier during Saturday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation in the north Sunday. Temperatures averaged above normal Friday, below to well below normal Saturday. The coldest low temperatures, occurring Saturday morning, were mostly 31 to 35 F, except not so cold in Michigan and Kentucky. Frost and light freeze conditions, especially in areas where winds were light or calm.

Forecast:

West: Days 1-3: Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation through eastern areas Monday night. Drier again Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below-to-near normal Monday, near-to-below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday. The coldest low temperatures, likely Monday morning, would range from 27 to 32 F, except colder through eastern South Dakota. Another frost and light freeze Monday night. Warmer Tuesday morning, colder again Wednesday morning.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Thursday. Showers, favoring southern and eastern areas, Friday or Friday night. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average near-to-above normal west and below normal east Thursday, near-to-mostly above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

East: Days 1-3: Dry Monday. Light rain or showers favoring northwest, south and east areas Tuesday. Dry or with only lingering light rain northeast areas Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday, variable Tuesday, below normal again Wednesday. Lows Monday morning likely in the low to middle 30s through northwest and central areas with some frost likely and patchy light freeze conditions possible. Warmer west, cool to cold east, Tuesday morning. Warmer all areas Wednesday morning.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Thursday and during the daytime hours of Friday. Showers and a little light rain in western areas Friday night. A few light showers with locally heavier during Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, near-to-above normal west and below normal east Friday, mostly above normal Saturday. The coldest low temperatures during this period, likely Thursday morning in the west and Friday morning east, look to be in the middle to upper 30s F.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly above normal east, somewhat more variable in the west. Rainfall near to above normal.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Heavy snow, 1-2 feet, occurred through much of North Dakota during Friday into Saturday along with extreme winds leading to blizzard conditions. West and north South Dakota saw 7 to 15 inches of snow and also very strong winds. It appears that northwest Minnesota had 5 to 10 inches but some locally heavier. Precipitation totals 1.00 to 3.00 inches central and east areas. Windy with a little very light precipitation Sunday. Temperatures averaged well below normal. Hard freeze conditions most areas.

Forecast: Days 1-3: Dry or with only a little light precipitation Monday or Monday night. Lingering light precipitation east, dry west, Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below-to-well below normal Monday and Tuesday, near-to-above normal west and below normal east Wednesday.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Dry or with only a little very light precipitation Saturday or Saturday night. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period, although possibly cooler over snow covered areas.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Showers southeast early in the Friday-Saturday time period, dry otherwise during this time. Mostly dry Sunday. Strong winds early in the weekend. Temperatures well below normal. Hard freeze conditions west and central areas, frost and light freeze conditions east.

Forecast: Days 1-3: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday, although there is a chance for showers in northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma during this time. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average near-to-above normal Monday, near-to-below normal north and above normal south Tuesday, below normal east and south and warmer northwest Wednesday.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Chance for showers, favoring east and south areas, during Saturday. Temperatures average above normal west and near-to-below normal east Thursday, above normal Friday and Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during the first one to two days of the period, somewhat colder after that. Rainfall near-to-below normal west, near-to-above normal east.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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