Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A variable temperature pattern with continued slow crop development, stressful heat in the Southern Plains, and flooding in the Central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

COOL, SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for mainly below normal temperatures in the Midwest the next few days. There will be some beneficial showers for filling corn and soybeans in the dry areas of the central and eastern Midwest early this week. Heavy weekend rainfall in south Nebraska and Kansas has increased the flooding risk in these locations. Excessive runoff from recent heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low-lying spots. Crop development remains well behind normal in most areas. An early freeze in the fall would have a major impact on crops. Cool and sometimes very cool weather this week keeps development of crops slower than normal.

TROPICAL UPDATE

At 5:00 a.m. American Standard Time (09:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located about 225 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 miles per hour (22 kilometers/hour). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and Wednesday while it is over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

An elongated area of low pressure centered about 280 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become a little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form Monday or Tuesday while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United States.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR N. PLAINS

Mostly favorable moisture conditions for filling corn and soybeans are expected for the Northern Plains. Crop development remains well behind normal in most areas. An earlier-than-normal freeze in the fall would have a major impact on crops.

WET, COOL FOR CANADA'S PRAIRIES

Wet, cool conditions in eastern areas of the Canadian Prairies early this week will be unfavorable for maturing crops and will likely delay the early harvest. Cool or very cool weather will, at times, slow crop development elsewhere in the region. A significant freeze is not expected this week but lows may dip into the 30s Fahrenheit in some locations, which would mean a risk for frost or an isolated light freeze condition. Crops, especially canola, will need an extended growing season to escape damage or quality reductions from fall freeze conditions.

SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAT

The Southern Plains is seeing stressful heat and high fire danger. Triple-digit temperatures and high heat indexes are seen in some areas of Texas and Oklahoma, leading to heat advisories and excessive heat warnings. A cold front will move in midweek with chances for thunderstorms and cooler conditions.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR EUROPE

In Western Europe, hot, dry weather during July coincided with reproductive crop stages from France eastward to Poland. This is likely to mean yield and production declines for corn, sunflower and soybeans. It is likely that corn was affected more than the other two crops, which may recover somewhat due to late July and early August rainfall. West and central Europe will be warm or hot for much of this week with little rainfall expected. This puts added stress on filling crops and reduces soil moisture for planting winter grains and oilseeds. Late-season hot weather also continues in southeast Europe. This may stress late-filling crops but it favors maturing summer crops, harvesting and early planting of winter grains and oilseeds.

DRIER, HOTTER BLACK SEA PATTERN

In the Black Sea region, the region is likely to be drier and somewhat hotter during the next week to 10 days. Crops are in filling to maturing stages at this time. There's some impact to late-filling crops but mostly favorable conditions for maturing crops at this time. Soil moisture is reported as adequate for early planted winter grains, but will be diminishing with time.

VARIABLE FORECAST IN CHINA

Northeast China sees good-to-excellent moisture conditions for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans. Episodes of showers and rain and cooler weather will mostly favor developing crops. Drier, hotter weather through central China but following recent heavy rains this is not overly concerning. Very hot, mostly dry, weather from the Yangtze River Valley southward has recently been a concern for rice and sugarcane crops. Moisture from a weak tropical storm brought rain into southern China during the weekend, helping to ease dryness concerns in some rice and sugarcane areas.

CONTINUED INDIA MONSOON RAIN

An active Monsoon rainy season continues in India. Heavy weekend rains were reported in northeast and central interior India and in the southwest. Drier in and near Gujarat India this weekend.

RAINS NEEDED FOR AUSTRALIA WHEAT CROP

Wheat approaching or in reproduction in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland needs significant rain to prevent further declines in an already poor wheat crop. There is no significant rainfall in sight. The low temperatures last week were near or slightly under freezing (28-32 F or minus 2 to zero C). Any flowering wheat would be at risk of significant damage in areas of 32 F or lower. Conditions are more favorable in wheat areas of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria at this time.

LITTLE CROP DAMAGE RECENTLY IN BRAZIL

There was some damage to flowering wheat in central Brazil due to freezing conditions in early July. Little or no damage is expected from recent cold weather.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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(CZ)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.