DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough to the north of Alaska. A ridge over western Canada. A trough over central Canada and a ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This is producing mild/warm temperatures in western Canada, mild/cool central, cool/cold east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the central and eastern U.S. A trough in the northwest atlantic and a ridge in the southwest atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over the sourthwest atlantic and Baja California.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature ridging across Alaska and northern Canada. A trough up near the pole and a weak trough over Greenland. This will produce cool/cold temperatures over Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. extending into the central U.S. and a weak ridge over the eastern U.S. This will be a wet pattern for most of the central U.S. with the trough to the west and the ridge to the east. It will be a cool pattern over the north-central U.S. as cool air in Canada moves southward into the northern Midwest, more favorable over central areas, warm in the south.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures early in the period, near to above normal thereafter. Rainfall below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...118 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...26 AT ASPEN SPRINGS CO AND PARADISE UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…SAVANNAH GA 2.00 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair agreement during the outlook period.

A weak to moderate trough is expected to drop southward over western Canada before moving eastward across the northern plains during the first few days of the outlook period. The US model is somewhat deeper and a little slower moving with this trough. This suggests a chance for heavier rainfall in the northern plains crop belt and beneficial rainfall in the southern Canadian Prairies region, especially if the US model is closer to being correct. Later in the period the US model shows the next trough dropping southward over the western US before moving over the Rockies at the end of the period. The US model shows the heights building over the lower Miss and Ohio river areas as well as in the southeast late in the period...through not yet to a strong ridge pattern. This implies warmer temperatures for the eastern plains and Midwest regions and continued rain chances in the northeast and central plains and western Midwest areas. The European model shows a flat trough over the north-central US moving to the Great Lakes region at the end of the period, a ridge trying to form over the southern Rockies/west Texas area and not much ridging in the Delta or the southeast. This implies cooler north and warmer south in the plains with rain chances further east in the Midwest and across the central plains area, drier in the southern plains locations. I am tending to use a little more of today's US model during the outlook period.

The mean map from today's US model covering the 8-10 day period shows the subtropical ridge in the Pacific well west of the coast, a trough over the western US and rising heights over the southeast US but not a ridge yet. We also note high latitude ridging over northern Canada. The trough over the western US does not have very low heights associated with it, although still below normal. This implies that while it might mean below normal temperatures west of this trough line it would not mean very cool temperatures.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time

NORTHERN PLAINS: Some increase in rainfall is expected during the short and medium range periods. This will maintain favorable conditions for developing spring wheat and earlier planted corn and soybeans. It will also mean some delay to planting again. Cool temperatures will, for awhile, slow germination and early development.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Frequent but more limited rainfall in the Midwest has allowed for improvement in planting progress for corn and soybeans. However near to below normal temperatures will reduce growing degree day accumulations which is unfavorable for late planted crops. Heavier rains may redevelop later in the 5 day period and during the

6-10 day period. This may slow the later stages of planting again. It may also threaten more flooding in the region, especially over south and east areas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM/LIVESTOCK): Recent near to above normal rainfall in the southern plains increases disease pressure on maturing wheat, lowers crop quality and slows the early harvest. Wet weather and cooler conditions during this week in the key wheat growing areas. Wet weather and wet conditions will continue to slow planting of corn-soybean-sorghum. Cool temperatures slow development of summer crops.

SOUTHEAST US (CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON): The heavier rain continues over the Carolinas and Virginia today but after today a drier period becomes established. Heavy rainfall since the end of last week has eased developing drought conditions and is mostly favorable, except in areas of local severe flooding.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Episodes of showers and some light rain will continue to slowly improve conditions for early development of wheat and canola. However the driest areas of the region, southwest and central Saskatchewan, will be the slowest to improve during the 5 to 7 day period.

Cooler temperatures will, for a time, slow germination and early development.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWER): The entire region is expected to see below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures during the next 7 to 10 days. The warmest readings, upper 80s to low 90s, may shift into western areas after a few days as a back door cold front brings some moderation to the east. The west is in better shape after an active rainfall pattern during May and early June to withstand this dry spell. In the east filling wheat and early developing corn and sunflower will come under increasing stress due to dry weather and above normal temperatures.

SIBERIA RUSSIA, AND NORTH KAZAKH (SPRING WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for spring wheat east of the Urals at this time, following beneficial rainfall during the past week or so.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Rain has recently occurred in West Australia, southern South Australia and Victoria wheat areas and should move into southern NSW today. Improving conditions for wheat in these locations. Dryness remains of somewhat more concern in northern NSW while in southern Queensland occasional light rain events has been more favorable for wheat.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/WHEAT): No significant concerns for maturing second crop corn or the harvest in Mato Grosso and Goias. Drier weather will also improve conditions for maturing corn and harvesting in Parana.

NORTH CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): A mostly favorable weather pattern for development of early planted corn and soybeans with some periodic delays to seasonal fieldwork due to wet and cool conditions... at times.

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/CORN/GROUNDNUTS/RICE/COTTON): Heavy rain and thunderstorms moved into south and central areas last week. This might have favored late filling wheat and developing summer crops, except in areas of local flooding. It is unfavorable for mature rapeseed and early harvesting and it will delay planting of summer crops. The region has turned hotter again during the weekend and early this week.

INDIA: Tropical cyclone 02a (Vayu), with 90 knot winds, was located near 18.7n/70.0e at 0900 UT Wednesday or in the northeast Arabian Sea about 190 miles west-southwest of Mumbai, India. The system has been moving towards the north-northwest at 8 knots during the past 6 hours. It is expected to track near the southwest coast of Gujarat, India during Thursday and Friday. Top winds near the center of the cyclone may reach to 95 knots during today before beginning to weaken tomorrow and Friday. The cyclone is likely to bring heavy to torrential rains to the upper west coast of southern India and to southwestern Gujarat during the next 1 to 3 days. Severe flooding may develop.

This might mean a significant northward jump to where the Indian Met department calls the leading edge of the Monsoon, however I can't access there web site this morning to confirm this. This area of Gujarat is a significant producer for both cotton and groundnuts.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Showers and some rain, 0.10-0.50 inch, through north, central and southwest areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to mostly below normal.

East: Light to moderate rain through western and northern Wisconsin during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal for the morning lows, near normal for the afternoon highs.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Light rain or showers favoring southeast areas early today. Mainly dry Thursday. A few light showers with isolated heavier Friday. Temperatures average well below normal today and Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Light showers with locally heavier favoring eastern and southern areas during Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Showers and some rain favoring southern and western areas Monday. Temperatures average near to slightly below normal during this period.

East: Light to moderate showers, 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier, today into tonight. Light rain may linger in northeast and far east areas during Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Light rain or showers favoring western and northern areas Friday night. Temperatures average below normal today, well below normal tomorrow and Friday.

Episodes of showers and thundershowers Saturday through Monday. Rainfall likely moderate to heavy. The heaviest activity looks to occur through south, central and northeast areas. Temperatures average near to below normal Saturday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to slightly below normal west, near to slightly above normal east. Rainfall is expected to average near to above normal.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights

A few sprinkles or light showers, mainly 0.25 inch or less, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers today and Thursday.

Scattered light showers favoring north-central and east areas Friday or Friday night. Temperatures average near normal west and well below normal east today, above normal west and below normal east Thursday, above normal west and central areas and near normal east Friday.

Light to locally moderate showers favoring central and east North Dakota and northern Minnesota Saturday into Sunday. Light to moderate showers favoring Montana and the western Dakotas during Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal west, near to below normal east, during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to slightly below normal during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Light to locally moderate showers and thundershowers through eastern Kansas, northeast, central and southwest Oklahoma and a little of north-central Texas mainly overnight. Temperatures averaged below normal.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry today. A few thundershowers during Thursday, mainly in and near the Texas Panhandle. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers during Friday. Temperatures average below to well below normal today and Thursday, near to above normal west and below normal east Friday.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers will develop in the region during Saturday through Monday. The heaviest activity may tend to favor southeast Kansas, central and east Oklahoma. The activity might stay mostly north of the Texas Panhandle and the north-central Texas area. Temperatures average near to slightly above normal Saturday, somewhat cooler again during Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal north and near to above normal south. Rainfall should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

Joel Burgio