DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...90 AT NAPLES FL AND WINTER HAVEN FL LOW TUE...32 BELOW ZERO AT SHELBY MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…WACO TX 1.29 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, fair to good agreement during the last couple of days. I favor a blend between the models for the last part of the period.

A strong high latitude blocking ridge continues to build over Alaska and northwest Canada while a strong middle and high latitude ridge builds over Europe and noses across the northern Atlantic to Greenland. The polar trough is shown over or near Hudson Bay in Canada, a little stronger and somewhat further west on today's US model later in the outlook period. We also note a secondary trough south of Greenland in the Atlantic. The European model features a building ridge over the western US that is not evident on the US model at this time. The subtropical ridge in the Atlantic is further east on the European model when compared with the US model.

This is a cold pattern for much of Canada and the north-central US areas.

Today's European model shows a fairly strong, 1055 mb, surface high moving over Alberta and the Montana/North Dakota area at day ten. This is likely overdone somewhat. The US model has a more modest 1040 mb high in the area at the time.

In either case it appears that the coldest anomalies will be over the north-central US in the extended range. The storm track might be pushed further south during this time frame, over the southeast US. However, we have seen this in the longer range before and it also seems to come in further north than expected.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): The return of the rainy season to central Brazil is very favorable for developing second crop corn but will cause some disruptions to the soybean harvest. There may have been some very heavy rain in Mato Grosso yesterday but this is a little uncertain at this hour.

Mostly favorable conditions for later filling, maturing and harvesting soybeans in southern Brazil.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans in central Argentina at this time. Hot, dry weather through midweek will deplete soil moisture. However showers and thundershowers at end of the week followed by cooler temperatures will maintain mostly favorable conditions. Somewhat hotter, drier weather continues to stress sunflower development in the southern part of this region. La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires will turn cooler and then much cooler during the next 5-6 days. Rain chances are highest central and east areas while the west might miss out.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Moderate to heavy snow in west and north-central areas overnight and today will stress livestock and disrupt transportation and travel. A second storm this weekend may cause further problems. Significant spring snowmelt and precipitation is expected to lead to delays in fieldwork.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Some beneficial precipitation for the overwintering wheat crop yesterday and again this weekend. No damaging cold. Precipitation in the feedlots will stress cattle. Some potential for the Saturday storm to cause heavy snow in the southwest but this is a little uncertain at this time. The heavy precipitation might be a little east of the southwestern belt.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Widespread moderate and heavy rain occurred through maize and sugarcane areas last week. This will provide very favorable moisture for reproductive to filling crops. Some reports suggest that prior dryness may have limited overall acreage somewhat, especially in the western growing belt. However, improved prospects in central and east areas may make up for somewhat less acreage in the western growing areas. The weather this week looks to be drier and somewhat hotter for awhile.

EUROPE/UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for overwintering crops. Autumn drought limited winter crop emergence and establishment from eastern France and the Low Countries into Germany and northwestern Poland as well as portions of the western and central Balkans.

Producers will likely need to replant in the spring in the worst drought areas.

A developing upper level ridge is expected to limit chances for meaningful precipitation in the central Europe crop belt for awhile.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): An active fall and winter period near the Yangtze river valley of eastern China. This will provide favorable moisture for crops in the region come spring. This is mainly the winter rapeseed crop but the moisture has, at times, extended into the southern winter wheat belt. The northern winter wheat areas have been drier, typical for this area during the winter months.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Episodes of scattered showers and cool temperatures during this winter will favor development of crops, although the cool temperatures may slow development somewhat at times.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Snow and wind developed mostly overnight and continues early this morning. Snowfall is expected to average 6-10 inches and locally heavier before this system winds down later today. The heaviest may favor west and north Iowa and south Minnesota. Temperatures averaged well below normal yesterday.

East: Mainly dry yesterday. Overnight snow, freezing rain and rain developed.

The heaviest rainfall will be through southeast to east-central areas. The heaviest snow will be in the northwest. Temperatures yesterday were below to well below normal.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Snow linger north and east areas this morning, taping to snow showers during the afternoon and then ending. Mainly dry Thursday. A little light precipitation during Friday. Temperatures average above normal this morning, near to below normal during the afternoon, below normal Thursday, near normal Friday.

Moderate to locally heavy snow or rain changing to snow along with strong winds during Saturday and Saturday night. Drier Sunday. Light precipitation redevelops Monday or Monday night. Temperatures average above normal Saturday, below normal Sunday and Monday.

East: Rain or snow changing to rain south and east-central areas today. Snow northwest areas during this time. Little southwest. Mainly dry Thursday and most of Friday. Rain redevelops through southeast areas Friday night.

Temperatures average near to mostly above normal during this period.

Rain, showers and possibly thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night along with developing strong winds. Precipitation may mix with and chance to snow before ending through northwest areas later Saturday night. Mainly dry Sunday.

Light mixed precipitation northwest areas Monday or Monday night. Temperatures average above to well above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to well below normal west, near to below normal east. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Snow, 5-10 inches, was reported in south-central Kansas and a portion of north-central Oklahoma during the past 24 hours. Light to locally moderate snow elsewhere in the north and east-central areas. Light snow or snow showers in the southwest. Rain or showers through the southeast. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry today and Thursday. Light precipitation develops Friday or Friday night. Moderate or heavy precipitation, likely rain changing to snow, Saturday.

Heavy snow may occur through southwest, central and northeast areas during this time frame. Strong winds are also possible with this system. Drier again during Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures average below normal today and Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal west and near to above normal east Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Sprinkles and light showers through Parana during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry in RGDS during this time. Temperatures above normal south, below normal north.

Forecast...

Afternoon thundershowers favoring northeast areas today. Mainly dry tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures average above normal in the south, near to below normal north, during today. The north turns warmer as well tomorrow and Friday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Saturday. Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers develop in the south and spread north Sunday and Monday. Heaviest from RGDS to southern Parana during this period. Temperatures above normal Saturday. The south turns cooler Sunday and Monday. The north may turn somewhat cooler Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms were reported in Mato Grosso during the past 24 hours. Some of this activity may have been very heavy.

Scattered showers elsewhere in the region, mostly light to moderate with locally heavier. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers favoring Mato Grosso during today through Friday. Scattered to widely scattered showers in MGDS and southern Goias during this time. Temperatures near to below normal.

Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring north and east areas Saturday through Monday. Seasonal temperatures.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires…

Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal. High temperatures yesterday were mostly 93 to 95F.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. A few light showers with locally heavier develop in northern Buenos Aires tomorrow or tomorrow night. Scattered thundershowers move north into southern Santa Fe and southern Cordoba during Friday. The northern areas continue dry during this time. Temperatures 93 to 97F today and Thursday.

Cooler in the south and continued hot central and north during Friday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers move through central and north areas during Saturday. Showers may linger in the north Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures should be cooler during this period.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires…

Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal. Highs mostly 92 to 97F, except southeast areas were somewhat cooler.

Forecast...

Light showers with locally heavier may occur in north areas tonight. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier possible will favor central and east areas Thursday. Showers may linger in the area during Friday.

Temperatures average above to much above normal today, cooler tomorrow and Friday.

A secondary cold front may bring a few light showers to the area Saturday.

Mainly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures turn much cooler during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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